Antonelli's Bomb

The 2009 Baseball America Prospect Handbook arrived on my doorstep this afternoon. I peeled it open and found that the Padres farm system fell to 29th (out of 30) in the BA rankings. Rumors of that precipitous fall (the Padres were ranked 12th last year) have been circulating around the web for a week or so, but I was still annoyed to see it in print today.

Fact is, I think BA is wrong.

BA's logic in ranking the Padres so low seems to be that Chase Headley and Nick Hundley have graduated to the majors (and thus no longer qualify for the rankings), while other prospects, such as Wade LeBlanc, Drew Miller, Nick Schmidt, Will Inman, Steve Garrison, Cory Luebke, Yefri Carvajal, Cesar Ramos and Cesar Carrillo, have suffered injuries or simply underperformed. No less than 10 Padres from last year's top 30 are still in the Padres system but have "dropped out" of the top 30 rankings. I haven't compared those numbers to other teams but that smacks of a high percentage.

Perhaps no Padre farmhand is more responsible for the lower ranking than Matt Antonelli. He had a rough season in AAA and a poor showing during a September cup of coffee in the Bigs, and now BA seems to have written him off and made him the poster boy for a 17 point drop in the team rankings. If you don't believe me visit your nearest Barnes & Noble and flip through the book for free. You'll see.

But I don't buy BA's logic. This blog, among others, thinks BA ranks the Padres farm system way too low. Not only that, methinks Matty Antonelli is going to rebound this season. He may even win the starting job out of Spring Training. That's what the hunch monster grumbling in my stomach is telling me, anyway.

In what is both a review and preview of better days, I posted the above photo of Matt Antonelli's first - and currently only - major league bomb. It happened last September 15 in the top of the 3rd inning at Coors Field in Colorado. Jason Hirsh had come on in relief and struck out Nick Hundley while Chase Headley bounced off second base. Antonelli stepped in and Hirsh, clearly scared out of his wits at the prospect of pitching to Antonelli, threw three straight balls nowhere near the plate. Hirsh grooved the 3-0 pitch for a strike and then, on 3-1, he left a fastball on the outside corner and Antonelli leaned over the plate and drove it on a line over the left field wall.

Voila. Two. Run. Bomb.

Unlike BA, I have a feeling Antonelli has a lot more of that type of AB in his future.