Tuesday, January 4, 2011

Baseball America's Projected 2011 Padres Starting Rotation And Closer ... Made In 2008

Yesterday I listed Baseball America's projected lineup for the 2011 Padres as published in their 2008 Prospect Handbook. Today we look at BA's projected rotation and closer.

Starting Rotation

1. Jake Peavy

Kevin Towers, in what was likely his second greatest trade as Padres GM, dealt Peavy to the White Sox midway through the 2009 season in exchange for three pitchers, one of whom was Clayton Richard who has become a mainstay of the Padres rotation. As for Peavy, he made 17 mostly-mediocre starts for the White Sox last season before his right shoulder muscle detached from his back and his season abruptly ended. If he can approach a Peavy-esque season in 2011, the White Sox look to be favorites to win the AL Central.

2. Chris Young

If only the man could stay healthy. I loved the work CY did in his four starts - three during the ultimately unsuccessful stretch run - last season. Unfortunately it was just that: four starts. If CY and the Padres could somehow find it in their mutual hearts and pocketbooks to reunite for another season or two, he would immediately become my favorite Padre. I like his demeanor, his competitiveness, his work ethic, his overall beastliness. Make it happen, Jed. Bring CY back!

3. Mat Latos

Forget #3 starter. Latos, as a 23-year old, may be the #1. His stellar sophomore campaign - 14-10, 2.92 ERA, 189 Ks, 1.08 WHIP - included a remarkable 15-game stretch where he pitched at least 5 innings and did not allow more than 2 runs in any start. I also liked his gutty performance on the final day of the season in Frisco. Though the Padres lost that game 3-0, Latos manned up, attacked the Giants hitters, and kept the Padres within striking distance. The kid gets it.

4. Wade LeBlanc

Wade has a shot to make the rotation out of Spring Training, although if he does I imagine Jed will think something has gone wrong with his well-laid plans. I like Wade and think he is capable of success in short spurts, perhaps as a change of pace after a hard thrower like Latos, before hitters start to figure out his marginal stuff. The key to winning at Petco, however, is starting pitching depth, so Wade will play a role on the 2011 Padres, whether he makes the team coming out of Peoria or not.

5. Drew Miller

Another injury-plagued career. Drew pitched poorly in 2008 and then, as the '09 season began, underwent Tommy John surgery. A second surgery on his ulnar nerve followed later that summer. He finally made a comeback last season in Fort Wayne and gave up 5 hits and 4 earned runs in 3.1 innings pitched. He did strikeout 5 of the 16 batters he faced. He retired voluntarily last May, a few days after his last outing.

Closer

Heath Bell

Well done, BA. Well done. What more can I say here about Heath? He was probably the best closer in baseball last season and I only wish he could have showcased his beastliness in the playoffs. The Padres will likely deal him at the trade deadline in 2011, gathering another haul of future monsters. Until that time I'm just going to enjoy watching him dominate the ninth inning for the Drinos.

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