Thursday, August 11, 2011

Padres Road Splits: A Study In Raking (More Or Less)

It's no secret that Petco Park is a place where hits rarely happen. It is a cavernous place where fly balls stop dead against the dense ocean air. It's a place where hitters go mad, and pitchers careers are saved. It's a place where even the game's best hitters - Adrian Gonzalez for one - beg and plead to leave. You have to feel sorry for hitters who have 81-games worth of at bats in a place like Petco Park. (At least as sorry as you can feel for someone who gets to play big league baseball and spend most of his time in the Diego.)

But what of those hitters when they are out on the road hitting in other, more friendly parks? Do they start raking uncontrollably, putting up monster numbers?

I'm gonna go ahead and say yes.

Here are the road splits for Padres "starters" as of today:

C - Rob Johnson: .247/.293/.365 .658 OPS
1B - Jesus Guzman: .296/.305/.457 .762 OPS (only guy hitting better at Petco)
2B - Orlando Hudson: .270/.391/.351 .743 OPS
SS - Jason Bartlett: .265/.324/.327 .651 OPS
3B - Chase Headley: .333/.404/.470 .874 OPS
LF - Kyle Blanks: .361/.425/.667 1.092 OPS
CF - Cameron Maybin: .320/.367/.485 .852 OPS
RF - Will Venable: .312/.364/.475 .839 OPS

Yes, Blanks is working on a small sample, but even after things even out, I'm certain his numbers will be better on the road than at Petco. (Incidentally, even Ryan Ludwick was almost marginally average on the road: .269/.314/.398 .712 OPS.)

So what I'm seeing is four guys with an OPS north of .800, and three guys with OBPs over .390. I'm particularly impressed by Orlando de la Noche's numbers. A .391 OBP? Who knew? Makes you wonder what kind of season he'd be putting together if he was on, say, the DBacks, Astros, or Brewers, all teams that play in hitters havens.

And how about Headley and Maybin? As my advisor Tam O'Flannell said today, Maybin is putting up near star-quality numbers, but you'd never know it because he plays half his games at Petco. I'd add that Headley also falls into that category. Maybe not "star" category, but certainly a player to be reckoned with.

And come to think of it that's a pretty good way to judge a team. How many guys do they put up there that need to be reckoned with? To put it another way, how many guys do they put up there that can't be ignored? I'd say on the road the Padres have 6-7 of those guys, arguably one or two more. That's a team that can be a winner.

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