Baseball America's Projected 2011 Padres Lineup ... Made In 2008

I perused my copy of the 2008 Baseball America Prospect Handbook today and came across BA's projection of the 2011 Padres lineup.

Recognizing that it's no easy task to predict a ballclub's lineup three years out, it is still a rather humorous read.

I'll list out the projected lineup and let you know (as if you didn't already know) where they are now:

C - Mitch Canham

Mitch was drafted for his bat and that hasn't really come around. His best year was at Lake Elsinore in 2008 when he hit .285/.382/.434. The last two seasons, however, he's faltered a bit, showing very little pop (.316 slugging % last summer). He'll most likely start the season in AAA and perhaps the hitter-friendly conditions in Tucson will help him find his stroke.

1B - Adrian Gonzalez

In the most marquee deal of the offseason, Jed moved Adrian to Boston for three top prospects and Eric Patterson. Adrian has now taken his talents to the Fens.

2B - Matt Antonelli

In a move that surprised me a bit, the Padres released Antonelli in the offseason. He has since signed with the Nationals and will likely have a shot to make their major league roster out of Spring Training.

3B - Kevin Kouzmanoff

Jed shipped Kouz to the A's last January for Scotty "Bombs" Hairston. The move opened up a spot for Chase Headley at third base.

SS - Khalil Greene

A sad story for young Kal El. His social anxiety disorder has decimated his career. The Padres shipped him to the Cardinals two years ago for Luke Gregerson and Mark Worrell. After spending a rough season with St. Louis, he signed with Texas last January, only to decide he was not well enough to report to Spring Training. The Rangers voided his contract and, as best I can tell, Khalil is still a free agent.

LF - Chase Headley

Moved to third base following the Kouz trade. Only man in this projected lineup who is in the actual lineup.

CF - Drew Cumberland

BA's most interesting projection. Cumberland is a middle infield prospect that may have the athleticism to roam the Petco outfield. He in injury-prone, however, so a move to the outfield seems unlikely. He was having a break out year last summer until an injury ended his season. If he comes out raking in '11 the Padres might not be able to keep him on the farm.

RF - Cedric Hunter

One of the more curious prospects in the Drinos system. He was a high-school draft pick that has over 5 years of pro experience, is still only 22, and has hit at every level. Yet for whatever reason, perhaps an overly complicated swing and/or questionable pop, he is rarely mentioned among the best of the best of the Padres prospects. He hit .287/.342/.397 at AA and AAA last season. He should get a shot in the bigs at some point, maybe later this summer if the Padres are out of the race.

Tomorrow I'll look at BA's projected rotation and closer. It's all very fun to read.

Khalil Looking Better

Khalil,

I'm happy to see you've been playing better of late. In fact, you're 5 for your last 10, with 3 bombs, 5 ribeyes and 5 runs scored.

I hope you continue to hit many bombs and play awesome in the field.

Best,
Bevormo

A "Beastly" List of Padres Shortstops

Everth,

You've been back from your hamate bone injury for a couple of days now and I like what I'm seeing. You make plays defensively, you play with speed, you step confidently to the plate and you have a general flair for the game that most of the other Padre players just don't have.

It's only been 9 games total so far (24 ABs) but for a guy who never played above A ball before this season, you comport yourself pretty well. I sense good things. All of which prompted me to look ahead a few years and consider how you might one day rank among Padres starting shortstops.

Thus, below is a list of Padres starting shortstops ranked by recognition. What does "ranked by recognition" mean? It means it's not necessarily a skill ranking, but rather a ranking of what order these SS's come to mind when someone says "Give me the name of a Padre shortstop."

Anyway, it'll probably make more sense once I rank them.

Here goes:

1. Garry Templeton ('82-'90): the most recognizable Padre SS
2. Khalil Greene ('04-'08): close to surpassing Templeton, but faded
3. Enzo Hernandez ('71-'72, '74-'76): not good, but defined 1970s-era Padres
4. Ozzie Smith ('78-'81): a Cardinal but people still know his beginning
5. Tony Fernandez ('91-'92): a member of the Four Tops
6. Chris Gomez ('96-'98): quiet member of two playoff teams
7. Bill Almon ('77): former #1 overall pick
9. Ricky Gutierrez ('93-'94): had flashes of goodness
10. Damian Jackson ('99-'00): one of faceless Latinos employed in 2000s
11. Ramon Vazquez ('03): Latino
12. D'Angelo Jimenez ('01): Latino
13. Deivi Cruz ('02): Latino
14. Derrel Thomas ('73): weird spelling of first name
15. Tommy Dean ('69-'70): have no idea who this is

So, Everth, there's the list. As you can see it's not exactly blowing the doors off Cooperstown. In retrospect it may have been nice to keep Ozzie but would the Padres have done much better in the 80s with him on the roster instead of Templeton? Maybe, maybe not. It's not like Templeton was a zero for the Padres. Khalil's downfall is Shakespearean and Tony Fernandez got shipped away before he could make a true mark. Chris Gomez was just steady. Enzo is a punchline and the rest of the guys are pretty forgettable.

Anyway, my point is that you've got a shot to move up this list quickly. As you learn to play the Big League game, I'm thinking you could pass Khalil on this list by 2012; sooner if the Padres win a sneaky Championship in the next few years with you at SS (don't laugh). With your game-changing speed and overall flair (there's that word again) for the game, you've got a shot to become a fan favorite in the Diego. And hopefully, someday soon, synonomous with the term "Padre Shortstop."

Best,
Bevormo

[Update: 9:50 PM EST: It just occurred to me that Damian Jackson might not be Latino. And you know what? He's not. He's from L.A. F. Sorry, Damian.]

How The Padres Will Be Good in '09

Here is what needs to happen for the Padres to be good in 2009:

1. One of the young players (Venable, Headley, Antonelli) needs to step up and become a feared beast at the plate. Let's take Headley because he seemingly has the most potential, and is the furthest along. Headley needs to hit about .300 24 100.

2. Khalil needs a comeback season. He needs to hit like he did in 2007 or, at a minimum, somewhere between how he hit in 2007 and how he hit from 2004 - 2006.

3. Jody Gerut needs to put up the same numbers he did last season, except this time not get injured and miss the final month.

4. Peavy and CY need to both pitch like aces, and CY can't get injured.

5. Heath Bell needs to be a legit closer and at least one other guy has to emerge from the bullpen as a reliable stopper.

6. A-Gon, Kouz and Giles need to have similar seasons as they did in '08.

And there you have it. The Padres could also use some help from their 3-5 starters, a few more reliable bullpen arms, a decent hitting second baseman and a catcher who can throw guys out and hit over .200, but let's not get greedy. I'm not telling you what the Padres need to win a World Series, I'm just telling you what they need to be good.

Of course this post assumes Peavy, Khalil, Giles, etc. will be Padres come April. And that's a big assumption.