Blueprint For Illini To Make NCAA Tourney

The Illini snaked a nice win over Penn St. last night (hat tip to Ralph Wilson for the photo of Tisdale above) to put them at 13-8, 5-3 on the season. That record is good for a tie with Ohio St. for third place in the Big Ten.

An NCAA berth, however, is still in doubt.

With ten games remaining, winning 6 or 7 of those games - given the stiff competition the Illini will face - would almost certainly get them in the tourney. Can they do it?

I think they can.

Here's how.

1. Win their next two games against Indiana and at Iowa. Wins against these lowly teams are a must and would put the Illini at 15-8, 7-3 heading into the final brutal stretch of their schedule.

2. Win three of their final four home games. Of the final eight games, the Illini play four at home against Michigan St., Ohio St., Minnesota and Wisconsin. The Illini can lose, at most, one of those games. I, for one, would like that loss to be against someone other than Michigan St. Though the MSU game is not a must win (assuming wins over Indiana and Iowa, that is), a win over the Spartans - who have shown vulnerabilities - would put the Illini back in most experts brackets. The Illini would simply have to hold serve the rest of the season, i.e. win 2 of 3 of their remaining home games, if they can pull the upset of Michigan St. on February 6.

3. Win two of their final four road games. If the Illini do lose on February 6 to the Spartans, besides winning all three of their other home games, they'll also need to win two of their remaining road games, all of which are brutal. At Wisconsin on Feb. 9, at Purdue on Feb. 20, at Michigan on Feb. 23 and at Ohio St. on March 3. That's a lot of ranked teams. Two wins in that stretch - preferably against Purdue and Wisconsin - should set up the Illini with a berth in the tourney, asuming they have taken care of business in Champaign.

Bottom line: the Illini need to win 6 or 7 of their final 10 games to make the tourney.

If their performance last night against Penn St. is any indication, I think they can get it dun.