I Bet Bill Murray Wept

Considering how great a sports fan he is, particularly of the Cubs and the Illini, I bet Bill Murray wept tears of sadness Sunday evening when it was announced the Illini failed to make the NCAA Tournament.

As always, I think a quote from Murray's character in Groundhog Day, Pittsburgh weatherman Phil Connors, captures what most Illini fans are feeling right now.

Phil: You want a prediction about the weather, you're asking the wrong Phil. I'll give you a winter prediction: It's gonna be cold, it's gonna be grey, and it's gonna last you for the rest of your life.

Yep. That about sums it up.

Illini Bubble Watch: Selection Sunday

This photo makes me a feel a little better but I'm still hurting after yesterday's college hoops debacle.

I don't think we could have scripted a worse day for bubble teams and, specifically, the Illini.

Horrendous start to the day when Houston upset UTEP in the Conference USA final. Boom. One tourney spot gone.

Then the Illini took the floor against Ohio St. and led by 11 points midway through the second half. A few minutes later, however, the Illini were down by 9 points. I wouldn't believe that was possible if I hadn't watched every painstaking second of the 2o-point turnaround. Adding to the misery, the Illini had the ball and a chance to win the game at the end of regulation and at the end of the first overtime. Both times they couldn't get a shot off. Killer.

The rest of the day just continued the dagger tossing. Minnesota crushed Purdue, San Diego St. beat UNLV, Mississippi St. beat Vandy, Washington beat Cal and, as a final insult, New Mexico St. upset a 27-win Utah St. squad.

I'm gonna have scars from all these stab wounds.

So where do things stand?

According to Lunardi the Illini are the second team out, behind Mississippi St. The last two teams in are Virginia Tech and Minnesota. Obviously both Minny and Miss. St. could secure the final two berths if they win the Big Ten and SEC conference tournaments, respectively, this afternoon. The only chance the Illini have is if one or, better, both those teams lose today.

The Illini are better than both Minny and Mississippi St., and for that matter, Virginia Tech. But the selection committee won't have a chance to even balance the Illini's resume against these teams if the Golden Gophers and Bulldogs take care of business today.

Those two games are absurdly important.

If you care about the Illini, root HEAVY for Ohio St. and Kentucky.

Games on.

Illini Bubble Watch: Day 4

First, a recap of yesterday's games …

Well, the Illini got it dun despite an absurd three-point barrage by the Badgers in the final minute. Not fun, but it's a W in the books, and that's what matters. The question is will that dubya be enough to get the Illini into the dance. I'm not so sure. There was some disappointing bubble action last night.

Perhaps most distressing was S.D. St's win over the Lobos. Lunardi now has the Aztecs in as a "lock," which tells me that if both the Illini and Aztecs lose today, S.D. St. will get the call before Illinois. Not good. Of course it also means the Aztecs are still in the hunt for an automatic bid if they beat UNLV tonight. Again, not good.

Also disappointing yesterday: RIU over SLU, Ga. Tech over Maryland, Miss. St. over Florida, N.C. St. over Florida St., and Washington over Stanford. Also, Miami beat Va. Tech which, depending on how far the Hurricanes take their run, could be a disaster, or not a bad thing.

Man. This is going down to the wire.

On to today's games …

Big Ten Semis
- Illini over Ohio St.: I think the Illini are a "lock" if they beat the Buckeyes, even if only 1 at-large bid is left on Sunday. If they don't get it dun - and that's likely because Ohio St. is a tough matchup for Illinois - then the Illini may still need help. So stressful.

- Purdue over Minnesota: Goodness gracious this game is huge. Lunardi has the Golden Gophers as his first team out. If they win today and the Illini lose, they may jump ahead of the Illini in the eyes of the selection committee.

Conference USA Final
- UTEP over Houston: the Cougars have been good to us so far, but their run needs to end now. And I mean right now because the game starts in 15 minutes.

America East Final
- Vermont over BU: likely won't matter too much, but I don't want to see a 24-win Vermont team just hanging out.

SEC Semis
- Vandy over Miss. St.: big game. Miss. St. is still on the bubble behind the Illini but could play themselves in with a victory here. Also, the farther Vandy goes, the better the Illini's victory over them looks to the committee.

- Kentucky over Tennessee: both teams are in. I'd like to see Kentucky win because they probably have a better shot at beating Miss. St. if they play in the final.

Atlantic 10 Semis
- Temple over RIU: one of the biggest games of the day. If RIU wins, and the Illini lose, the Rams may jump the Illini in tourney consideration.

- Xavier over Richmond: I guess we go with Xavier because I know them bettter, but we really just need the team most capable of beating RIU in a potential A 10 final matchup.

ACC Semis
- Duke over Miami: it pains me to root so strongly for the Dukies, but they're now the only palatable team that can win the ACC tournament.

- Ga. Tech over N.C. St: jaysus, this is gross. Lunardi now has the Yellow Jackets as a lock so I guess we go with them. I don't want to have to worry about the Wolfypack winning the ACC final tomorrow.

MEAC Final
- Morgan St. over S. Carolina St.: get r dun, 26-win Morgan St.!

MAC Final
- Akron over Ohio U.: get r dun, 24-win Akron!

Southland Final
- Sam Houston St. over Stephen F. Austin St.: get r dun, #1 seed Sammy Houston St.

Pac 10 Final
- Cal over Washington: we've said all along that Cal has to win the Pac 10 tourney. That hasn't changed. Lunardi has Washington "in" but behind the Illini. That obviously changes with a Husky W.

Mountain West Final
- UNLV over S.D. St.: effing Aztecs are likely in over the Illini as things currently stand, but if they lose here, and the Illini beat the Buckeyes, that order would likely reverse, even if the Illini then lose the Big 10 final. Get r dun, Lon!

WAC Final
- Utah St. over New Mexico St.: get r dun, 27-win Utah St.!

Games on.

Illini Bubble Watch: Day 3

First, a recap of yesterday's games ...

A couple huge wins sprinkled with a couple near misses, made yesterday a strong day overall. If Colorado St. had held on against the Aztecs, I wouldn't have much to complain about at all, and if Oregon St. hadn't blown it against the Huskies, darned if it wouldn't have been a perfect day.

Among the big wins yesterday: Houston over Memphis, Akron over E. Michigan, New Mexico over Air Force, Southern Miss over UAB, Tennessee over LSU, Cal over Oregon, K. St. over OK St., WVA over Cincy and, of course, Stanford over ASU. Huge that last one.

Among the bad losses were Ga. Tech over UNC, Minny over Penn St., Washington over Oregon St., the Aztecs over 'Rado St., Florida over Auburn, and N.C. St. over Clemson (double bad because one of the Illini's "marquee" victories this season was at Clemson). A sneaky bad loss was Ohio over Kent St. Kent St. is now sitting there with 23 wins. Dicey. Not real dicey, but dicey.

On to today's tilts ...

Obviously, a lot of this could be moot after the Illini game, though even if the Illini win, a little help by losses by other bubble teams wouldn't hurt. And even if the Illini lose I'm not giving up hope for a sneaky bid until Greg Gumbel reads off the last NCAA Tourney team Sunday afternoon.

Game of Games
- Illini over Wisconsin: uncharacteristically, I don't have a ton of confidence in the Illini today. Wisconsin is playing very well of late, and the Illini are not. Two teams headed in opposite directions. (but get r dun, Illini!)

Critical Games
- UTEP over Tulsa: need the Miners to go ahead and win out in the Connie USA.

- SLU over Rhode Island: one of the most critical games of the day. Rhody is sitting right on the bubble behind the Illini. Their resume must not be padded.

- Tennessee over Ole Miss: Ole Miss is another bubble team, currently listed as "in" by Lunardi. They could be competing with the Illini for a final bid. Send 'em home, fat coach at Tennessee!

- Xavier over Dayton: absurdly important game. The Flyers are right on the bubble and usually play well this time of year. Muy importante that they lose immediatemente.

- Houston over Southern Miss : Southern Miss did us well yesterday but they have 20 wins now, and that's a bit too many for my liking. Let's send them home and then root against the Cougars tomorrow.

- Maryland over Ga. Tech: Ga. Tech's win over UNC was upsetting. Lunardi has them "in" and they are a team the selection committee will likely have in the same bucket as the Illini.

- Florida over Miss. St.: Florida's likely in now so we have to root for them against another bubble team Lunardi currently has as "out." I hope all the Mississippi schools lose today.

- Morgan St. over Hampton: definitely would like to see Morg St. win the Mid-Eastern Tourney.

- Utah St. over La. Tech: as noted yesterday, Utah St. is now sitting at 26 wins. We need them to go ahead and win the WAC tourney.

- Michigan St. over Minnesota: don't like to see Tubby's boys hanging around. Big game.

- New Mexico over S.D. St.: this game is only slightly less critical than yesterday's. Maybe more critical. It's one or the other. Or both.

- Cal over UCLA: Cal must win the Pac 10 tourney!

- Stanford over Washington: need one more win from the Cardinal.

Want To See The Higher Seeds Win
- Temple over St. Bonny's: get r dun, ghost of John Chaney.

- Duke over Virginia : nothing good can come of a Duke upset. Other than laughing at the Duke fans, which, granted, is significant.

- Kentucky over Alabama: John Wall show. I hope.

- Va. Tech over Miami (or not?): tough game here actually. If Miami wins they'll have 20 wins and momentum. Va Tech is likely already in, but Lunardi does have them on the bubble. I think we go Va. Tech but its not entirely clear.

- Purdue over Northwestern: send the nerds home. Stat.

- Akron over W. Michigan: win the Mid-American tourney, Zips.

- G'town over Marquette: both teams are in but no reason for Marquette to continue to pad its resume.

- Richmond over UMass: Spider trap!

- Florida St. over N.C. St.: send the Wolfypack home. Immediately.

- Vandy over Georgia: that Georgia coach, formerly the Nevada coach, scares me. Get him home.

Game Where I Wouldn't Mind If Lower Seed Wins As Long As It's The Last Game They Win
- Michigan over Ohio St.: we can't have Michigan winning the Big Ten Tourney, but they are a better matchup for the Illini in the second round, if the Illini are lucky enough to make it there.

Games on.

Illini Bubble Watch: Day 2

First, a recap of yesterday …

Another up and down day. The big game - ND v. Seton Hall - came out swimmingly, as did G'town knocking out South Florida once and for all. That's two bubble teams who don't get in over the Illini under any circumstances, I think.

Morgan St. also took care of business in the Mid-Eastern Conference, and Marquette ended any chance of a magical run by St. John's. And lest we forget that our boys at Sammy Houston St. stuck it to those yumps at Nicholls St. Nice win, guys.

But that's really where the good news ends. The rest of the day - especially late night - got real dicey.

Cincy coming back and beating Louisville is a bit disturbing. Louisville is apparently now a bubble team, but I think they still get in over the Illini, especially if the Illini can't get it dun against Sconnie. More distressingly, what if Cincy makes a run now and wins the Big East? Unlikely, yes, but still a possibility. I want as few "possibilities" as possible. We'll be rooting heavy against 'Natti this evening.

Montana's upset win over Weber St. is also highly annoying. I don't think Weber St. has enough juice to get an automatic bid, but you never like to see a #1 seed from a non-BCS conference lose if you're a BCS bubble team.

Speaking of non-BCS #1 seeds losing, what happened to my boys at Jackson St. Upset by #8 seed Grambling St.? Oh my. Only one team is coming out of the SWAC - I'm almost certain - but now the committee has a 19-12, 17-1 Jackson St. just hanging out, begging for attention.
And finally, Robert Morris beat Quinnipiac. Probably doesn't matter but Quinnipiac did have 23 wins this season. Some jabrone committee member will probably mention them on Sunday.

On to today's games, where things are starting to get serious ...

The Most Critical
1. Cal over Oregon: HEAVY on the Golden Bears, and here's why: if any team other than Cal wins the Pac 10 tourney, the Illini are effed. Cal is the only Pac 10 team Lunardi has in as a lock. Long story short: Cal is one of our new favorite teams over the next couple of days.

2. Oregon St. over Washington: a big, big game. The Huskies are sitting right on the bubble, waiting to make a name for themselves. I don't trust that Lorenzo Romar. He tends to win some big games. Let's get him and his team o-u-t, out, out, out!

3. Southern Miss over UAB: monster game. UAB is in the same position as the Washingtons, Daytons and URIs of the world - they are currently "out" according to Lunardi but are looming right behind the Illini. They must be terminated with extreme prejudice.

4. Stanford over Arizona St.: ASU is also a bubble team, one of Lunardi's last 4 in. Needless to say we go heavy on the Cardinal.

5. Penn St. over Minnesota: Damn those Golden Gophers. They could be a major wrench in this operation. They are just good enough to be highly annoying, and are sitting right behind the Illini according to Lunardi. Tubby need go home.

6. Houston over Memphis: critical, critical game. Memphis is one of Lunardi's last 4 in. We need them to lose as early as possible in case it comes down to Memphis or Illinois for the last tourney spot.

7. Colorado St. over S.D. St.: this pains me to no end, but we gotta root against the Aztecs. Trust me, it's not easy … my Dad went there for awhile, T. Gwynn coaches their baseball team, I've coached their HD Wooden hoops team for 6 seasons … but all that doesn't overcome our allegiance to the Illini. S.D. St. is currently "in" according to Lunardi, but one of his last 4 in, right with the Illini. It very easily could come down to the Aztecs or the Illini on Sunday afternoon. Let's make the decision a bit easier for the committee and send Stevie Fisher's boys home … stat.

8. Auburn over Florida: Lunardi has Florida in, but I'm not certain. I'd like to see an Auburn win today, followed by an Auburn loss tomorrow.

9. North Carolina over Ga. Tech: we arrive at a tough decision. On the one hand, Ga. Tech is a bubble squad that are competing with the Illini for a final spot in the bracket. On the other hand, UNC is capable of a run and blowing up the whole ACC tournament. For now we have to play the odds and hope UNC isn't going to run the table, and lock in the value of a Ga. Tech loss.

10. West Virginia over Cincinnati: embarrass them, Huggins. Embarrass them.
　
Games to watch with a careful eye
1. Utah St. over Boise St.: I think only one team from the WAC gets in, but I don't want #1 seed Utah St. losing. They have 25 wins and could look tempting to some granola dude on the selection committee.

2. Tulsa over Marshall: I wonder if one of these teams could play themselves in to the tourney with an extended run in the Conference USA tourney. I don't want to find out. Whoever wins this game needs to lose their next game.
　
Secondary Importance
- Kansas over Texas Tech: let's start eliminating any mediocre teams now before they can go on runs

- Texas A&M over Nebraska: get the Cornhuskers out … immediately.

- Villanova over Marquette: apparently Marquette is already solidly in, but we might as well cheer on 'Nova just in case.

- Wake Forest over Miami: Lunardi has Wake in as a lock, so let's get the Hurricanes out early.

- New Mexico over Air Force: another lock over a team that's not getting in unless they win the Big West. No brainer.

- Michigan over Iowa: I think Michigan has a better chance to beat Ohio St. in the second round, setting up a potential easier third round game for the Illini. Dicey to think in those terms, but nonetheless that's the position the Illini have put us in. For the record, I'm not looking past Sconnie. I'm just surmising some stuff.

- Tennessee over LSU: get r dun, fat coach at Tennessee!

- Indiana over Northwestern: The Wildcats have played well in stretches this season and at one point were considered a potential automatic bid team. They reek of Cinderella potential. Crean must rile up the Hoosier mystique and take care o' business, Jimmy Chitwood-style.

- Kansas St. over Oklahoma St.: the Cowbioys look like they're in, but no reason to further pad their resume. We are hanging with Mitch Richmond and rooting for K. St.!

- Kent St. over Ohio: get r dun, higher seed!

- Stephen F. Austin over TAMU Corpus Christi: higher seed, get it dun.

- BYU over TCU: lock over no-chancer … no brainer.

- Clemson over N.C. St: you never like to see the Wolfpack hanging around.

- Sam Houston St. over SE Louisiana: might as well stay on the Sammy Houston Express.

- UTEP over UCF: UTEP is the #1 seed in Conference USA. They need to take care o' their shyte.

- UNLV over Utah: Lunardi has UNLV as a lock and you never want to see Utah hanging around. Lon, do what you do.

Games on.

Illini Bubble Watch

How goes the Illini bubble, you ask?

Let's take a look.

Last night's win by Butler to clinch the Horizon League's automatic bid was huge, as was St. John's win over UConn, but wins by Seton Hall, Rhode Island and Dayton - all bubble teams like the Illini - didn't help the Illini's chances.

Today has gone fairly well with nice wins by Georgetown and Marquette to eliminate Cinderella-minded South Florida and St. John's, respectively. But Nebraska beat Missouri so the Cornhuskers loom as a potential dagger Cinderella. They don't have a great chance to run the Big 12 table, but I don't like to see them looming.

Speaking of looming, more important games loom tonight. First, and most critical, is the Notre Dame-Seton Hall tilt, tipping off in about 30 minutes from the Garden. Lunardi has the Irish in and Seton Hall on the bubble, so the Illini would benefit from a Seton Hall loss. The more wins Seton Hall racks up, the more tantalizing they look to the selection committee for the last automatic tourney bid, the same spot the Illini covet.

Also helpful tonight would be wins by Morgan St., Sam Houston St., Louisville, Weber St., Quinnipiac and Jackson St. None of these wins are critical to the Illini's tournament chances, but they sure wouldn't hurt.

Games on.

Cardinal Sins Of The 2009-10 Illini

In discussing the NCAA Tournament chances of various bubble teams with my advisors this morning, I came to the following conclusion:

I can really only speak to the Illini, who made two cardinal sins this season:

1. they lost to Utah and Bradley in Vegas over Thanksgiving; and
2. needing one more win over the last three weeks of the season, they were blown out three times at home to OSU, Wiscy and Minny.

They don't deserve any favors for that performance.

Oh man, the Illini need to win against Wisconsin on Friday.

Illinois Loss To OSU Isn't A Good Thing

Yeah kid, that's how I felt after the Illini loss to Ohio St. last night.

Sconnie game this weekend is a must win.

Whither The Illini?

After back-to-back home losses to Ohio St. and Minnesota, a competitive road loss to Purdue, and an ugly road victory against lowly Michigan, the Illini may well find themselves in a similar position to the girl in the above photo, which is to say on the outside looking in at the NCAA Tournament.

So what happened in that four-game stretch the Illini played from February 14-27?

To wit,

February 14 - hosting the Buckeyes: a pure beatdown by the red-hot Buckeyes from start to finish;

February 20 - at the Boilermakers: a good, competitive game, the Illini just couldn't hit the big shots down the stretch;

February 23 - at the Wolverines: an ugly-fest in which Michigan just played worse than the Illini; and

February 27 - hosting the Golden Gophers: an inspired second-half led by Peoria Richwoods-grad Bill Cole couldn't make up for absolute ice-cold shooting and lack of defensive intensity in the first half.

And now the Illini stand at 18-11, 10-6, good for 5th place in the Big Ten. Joe Lunardi has the Illini as a #10 seed in his latest Bracketology, but most pundits believe the Illini need to win at least one more game (at Ohio St., home against Wisconsin, or a first-round Big Ten tourney game against, most likely, Wisconsin) to secure an NCAA Tournament bid.

It's time for McCamey, Cole and the boys to gather up their britches and bring a little Illini pain to Columbus tomorrow night.

Let's get this dun, Illini!

Blueprint For Illini To Make NCAA Tourney

The Illini snaked a nice win over Penn St. last night (hat tip to Ralph Wilson for the photo of Tisdale above) to put them at 13-8, 5-3 on the season. That record is good for a tie with Ohio St. for third place in the Big Ten.

An NCAA berth, however, is still in doubt.

With ten games remaining, winning 6 or 7 of those games - given the stiff competition the Illini will face - would almost certainly get them in the tourney. Can they do it?

I think they can.

Here's how.

1. Win their next two games against Indiana and at Iowa. Wins against these lowly teams are a must and would put the Illini at 15-8, 7-3 heading into the final brutal stretch of their schedule.

2. Win three of their final four home games. Of the final eight games, the Illini play four at home against Michigan St., Ohio St., Minnesota and Wisconsin. The Illini can lose, at most, one of those games. I, for one, would like that loss to be against someone other than Michigan St. Though the MSU game is not a must win (assuming wins over Indiana and Iowa, that is), a win over the Spartans - who have shown vulnerabilities - would put the Illini back in most experts brackets. The Illini would simply have to hold serve the rest of the season, i.e. win 2 of 3 of their remaining home games, if they can pull the upset of Michigan St. on February 6.

3. Win two of their final four road games. If the Illini do lose on February 6 to the Spartans, besides winning all three of their other home games, they'll also need to win two of their remaining road games, all of which are brutal. At Wisconsin on Feb. 9, at Purdue on Feb. 20, at Michigan on Feb. 23 and at Ohio St. on March 3. That's a lot of ranked teams. Two wins in that stretch - preferably against Purdue and Wisconsin - should set up the Illini with a berth in the tourney, asuming they have taken care of business in Champaign.

Bottom line: the Illini need to win 6 or 7 of their final 10 games to make the tourney.

If their performance last night against Penn St. is any indication, I think they can get it dun.