Baseball America's Projected 2011 Padres Starting Rotation And Closer ... Made In 2008

Yesterday I listed Baseball America's projected lineup for the 2011 Padres as published in their 2008 Prospect Handbook. Today we look at BA's projected rotation and closer.

Starting Rotation

1. Jake Peavy

Kevin Towers, in what was likely his second greatest trade as Padres GM, dealt Peavy to the White Sox midway through the 2009 season in exchange for three pitchers, one of whom was Clayton Richard who has become a mainstay of the Padres rotation. As for Peavy, he made 17 mostly-mediocre starts for the White Sox last season before his right shoulder muscle detached from his back and his season abruptly ended. If he can approach a Peavy-esque season in 2011, the White Sox look to be favorites to win the AL Central.

2. Chris Young

If only the man could stay healthy. I loved the work CY did in his four starts - three during the ultimately unsuccessful stretch run - last season. Unfortunately it was just that: four starts. If CY and the Padres could somehow find it in their mutual hearts and pocketbooks to reunite for another season or two, he would immediately become my favorite Padre. I like his demeanor, his competitiveness, his work ethic, his overall beastliness. Make it happen, Jed. Bring CY back!

3. Mat Latos

Forget #3 starter. Latos, as a 23-year old, may be the #1. His stellar sophomore campaign - 14-10, 2.92 ERA, 189 Ks, 1.08 WHIP - included a remarkable 15-game stretch where he pitched at least 5 innings and did not allow more than 2 runs in any start. I also liked his gutty performance on the final day of the season in Frisco. Though the Padres lost that game 3-0, Latos manned up, attacked the Giants hitters, and kept the Padres within striking distance. The kid gets it.

4. Wade LeBlanc

Wade has a shot to make the rotation out of Spring Training, although if he does I imagine Jed will think something has gone wrong with his well-laid plans. I like Wade and think he is capable of success in short spurts, perhaps as a change of pace after a hard thrower like Latos, before hitters start to figure out his marginal stuff. The key to winning at Petco, however, is starting pitching depth, so Wade will play a role on the 2011 Padres, whether he makes the team coming out of Peoria or not.

5. Drew Miller

Another injury-plagued career. Drew pitched poorly in 2008 and then, as the '09 season began, underwent Tommy John surgery. A second surgery on his ulnar nerve followed later that summer. He finally made a comeback last season in Fort Wayne and gave up 5 hits and 4 earned runs in 3.1 innings pitched. He did strikeout 5 of the 16 batters he faced. He retired voluntarily last May, a few days after his last outing.

Closer

Heath Bell

Well done, BA. Well done. What more can I say here about Heath? He was probably the best closer in baseball last season and I only wish he could have showcased his beastliness in the playoffs. The Padres will likely deal him at the trade deadline in 2011, gathering another haul of future monsters. Until that time I'm just going to enjoy watching him dominate the ninth inning for the Drinos.

The Debut of Mat Latos

Today is Mat Latos' debut as a Padre.

Some other notable debut starts by Padre pitchers:

Jake Peavy: June 22, 2002 v. the Yankees at Qualcomm: 6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 4 K, 2 BB
Andy Benes: August 11, 1989 v. the Braves at Qualcomm: 6 IP, 6 H, 6 ER, 7 K, 4 BB
Randy Jones: June 16, 1973 v. the Mets at Shea: 1.1 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 K, 0 BB
Clay Kirby: April 11, 1969 v. the Giants at Qualcomm: 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K, 2 BB

Good luck, Mat.

The Padres Starting Rotation

Trust me, Monkey, I know how you feel. That's the exact reaction I had this morning when I woke up and read the news that the Padres were calling up Walter Silva and Wade LeBlanc to replace the injured Jake Peavy and Chris Young in the starting rotation.

I knew this was coming ever since news broke of the Peavy-CY injuries, but to actually see it in print this morning had me taken aback.

Just take a look at the five men making up the Padres starting rotation as of this moment (career numbers in parentheses):

Kevin Correia (17-27, 4.58 ERA, 1.47 WHIP)
Chad Gaudin (30-31, 4.62, 1.53)
Josh Geer (3-3, 5.04, 1.35)
Wade LeBlanc (1-3, 8.02, 2.06)
Walter Silva (0-0, 6.52, 1.76)

Doesn't exactly call to mind the 1971 Orioles. In fact, it barely calls to mind the 1971 Padres (I'd give my favorite merino full zip sweater for a little Dave Roberts and Clay Kirby right now.)

But I digress. I don't want to take anything away from these five "Gentlemen of the Mound." I'm sure they'll do the best they can and, obviously, I wish them well. In fact, when Geer throws this afternoon against the M's, I'm going to do him the honor of stopping work immediately and devoting my full attention to his outing on mlb.tv.

I figure that's the least I can do to show support for young Mr. Geer.

Good luck today, Josh.

And Monkey, relax. At least you have a sweet green turtleneck to wear.

Best,
Bevormo

Numbers Of A Contender

Take a look at these numbers:

.190 2 19 .285
.239 0 14 .318
.326 5 20 .386
.285 18 34 .385
.234 4 19 .290
.237 4 19 .310
.219 1 4 .286
.182 3 6 .262
.095 0 0 .136

What is this list of numbers? It's the batting average, bombs, ribeyes and on-base percentage of the Padres starting lineup in yesterday's 8-5 win over the D'Slacks.

In order:

Giles
Eckstein
Hairston
Adrian
Kouz
Headley
Burke
Blanco
Peavy

What a pack o' beasts.

I smell Wild Card.

Peavy Chooses Diego Over The South Side

Yeah, Jake. I'd have done the same thing.

Now that all this hullabaloo is behind us, I'll see you on the mound tomorrow night around 7:05 Pacific Time.

In a little place I like to call ... SAN DIAGO.

Best,
Bevormo

Good Pitching Cures Hangovers

Jake,

Stellar game today at home against Cincy. You pitched a complete game 4-hitter with 9 Ks, the only real blemish a 6th inning bomb you relinquished to somebody on the Reds named Dickerson. That kid just got lucky. You were dominant today. I don't recall your pitches looking so unhittable, at least not this season. I see your ERA dropping into the 2s before long with stuff like that.

I feel bad though because I didn't watch every pitch. I was on the sofa in my living room napping off a margarita/red wine hangover (that's a dangerous mix, my friend) and would go in-and-out of sleep while the game played on the television. It seemed like every time I woke up one of your sliders was breaking off at a ridiculously late moment as it passed over the plate, or one of your fastballs was painting a corner of the plate for a sweet called strike. Absolutely nasty.

Needless to say it was one of the best naps I've ever had.

You're probably pumped today from your performance, but I bet you're also stoked based on what the boys in the bullpen did in last night's dramatic 16-inning 6-5 win over the Redlegs. I missed the game because I chose to eat salami but from what I see in the box score, the bullpen was perfect. Just look at these numbers:

Joe Thatcher - .1 IP, 1 K
Greg Burke (MLB debut, sorry I missed it, Greg) - 1 IP, 0 R, 0 H, 1 K
Cla Meredith - 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R
Heath Bell - 1 IP, 0 R, 0 H, 1 K
Edward Mujica - 1 IP, 0 R, 0 H, 1 K
Luke Gregerson - 3 IP, 0 R, 2 H, 3 Ks
Luis Perdomo - 3 IP, 0 R, 0 H, 1 K

I'm no mathemetician, Jake, but that looks to me like 10.1 innings of relief pitching, with 0 runs allowed and 8 Ks. I'm no chef either but that looks like a recipe for victory.

And all that relief pitching set up Nick Hundley's 2-out, walk-off bomb in the bottom of the 16th.

What a weekend of Padre baseball.

Best,
Bevormo

Underway In Chicago

The Padres and Cubs are underway at Wrigley tonight with the Padres holding a 2-0 lead on Adrian Gonzalez's first inning 2-run bomb. Jake has pitched well and Kouz made a sweet diving stop to preserve the shutout through 4.

Growing up in Peoria, Illinois, about 3 hours south of Chicago, the (then) bi-annual visit by the Padres to Wrigley was always my favorite time of the season. You'd get to watch the Padres on WGN with the legendary Harry Caray and the great Steve Stone announcing (that is, if you weren't at school ... no Tivo or night games at Wrigley in those hallowed days), and at least once a year my Dad would drive us up to Wrigley for one of the games.

(F. Soriano just doubled home Geovany Soto.)

One of the most memorable moments during those trips involved Leon "Bull" Durham. Before a game in the mid-80s (not sure the exact year), Leon was taking a break from batting practice to sign autographs along the brick wall near the Cubs dugout. A long line of fans weaved up the concrete steps. My Dad and I were near the back of the line but we waited it out and, finally, made it to the point where we were next.

Leon signed an autograph for the guy in front of me and then, stunningly, turned to walk back toward home plate.

I was speechless and my youthful heart, which was pounding in my chest at being that close to a big league ballplayer, almost stopped. I didn't know what to do.

My Dad didn't hesitate.

He yelled out, "Leon! Hey Leon!"

Leon paused his massive frame, looked over his shoulder, and then turned and walked back toward us. He signed my program, then stayed and signed a few more autographs before walking back to get a few more hacks in.

(F. Milton Bradley just crushed a 2-run bomb off Peavy in the bottom of the 6th.)

Leon, for this I will always remember you as a true beast. Thanks, man.

(Notice I didn't mention the error you made in the 7th inning of Game 5 of the 1984 NLCS. You're a beast for that too.)

Don't Drink And Blog

There I was, sitting on the sofa, drunk, after a night out boozing with my friends, when I decide to write an absurd post about the Padres sneaky chances to win the World Series. What prompted that ridiculous notion was that I was watching Peavy deal against the Giants while, at the same time, Adrian had put together a couple outstanding at bats against Matty Cain.

Lo and behold I start thinking these are the two best ballplayers in baseball and could lead the Padres to a World Series.

That must have been the draft Coors Louies talking because not a moment after I publish the post Adrian makes a dubious decision to throw to second on an attempted sacrifice (the runner was safe), and the Gints capitalize on the mistake to push their first run across. Then, an inning later, Peavy serves up a salami to, of all people, Edgar Renteria.

5 - 2 Giants. Just like that.

The Gints would tack on a few more runs and finish with an 8-3 victory.

Not a bad result for the Giants against a likely World Series team like the Padres.

Yeah, right.

Sneaky Reason Why The Padres Could Win The World Series

What's that sneaky reason, you ask? It's that the Padres might have the two best players in any short series they play against any other team in baseball.

Those two players of course are David Eckstein and Kevin Correia.

. . .

I kid you.

Of course those two players are Adrian Gonzalez and Jake Peavy.

All I'm saying is watch them play. If those two players are on their games they might be the best in baseball. Sure, Johan Santana could stake a claim to being the best pitcher in the NL, but does anyone really think the Mets have a better hitter than AGon when push comes to shove?

Of course not.

What about in the AL? Josh Beckett may have a better postseason record than Peavy, but who in the Red Sox lineup can honestly stake a claim to being a better hitter than Adrian? I know who. The ghost of Manny Ramirez.

Exactly.

And what about Manny and the hated Dadgers. Well, sure, Manny is a beast, but those Dadger pitchers are smoke and mirrors my friends.

Smoke. And. Mirrors.

Peavy could put Billingsley, Kershaw, Kuroda and the rest in his back pocket.

So that's all I'm saying. The Padres are probably going to win the World Series because they have Peavy and AGon.

What a coupla beasts.

Hank White Smacks Two Bombs, Padres Beat Giants

Henry,

Way to smack two monster bombs at Petco last night off the Gints' Jonathan Sanchez. Sanchez had some good stuff early but you scoffed at that and went ahead and hit two bombs anyway. Adrian had the big 3-run double to break the game wide open but your two bombs set an early pace for the Padre offense that, along with Peavy's gem outing, kept the team in the game.

Your right handed pull power is what Kevin Towers envisioned when he traded for Doug Mirabelli back before the 2006 season. Except you know what you're doing behind the plate as well, which is more than that scrub Mirabelli had going for him.

Also, that's a sweet tat on your left arm. I gotta get me one of those.

Best,
Bevormo

How The Padres Will Be Good in '09

Here is what needs to happen for the Padres to be good in 2009:

1. One of the young players (Venable, Headley, Antonelli) needs to step up and become a feared beast at the plate. Let's take Headley because he seemingly has the most potential, and is the furthest along. Headley needs to hit about .300 24 100.

2. Khalil needs a comeback season. He needs to hit like he did in 2007 or, at a minimum, somewhere between how he hit in 2007 and how he hit from 2004 - 2006.

3. Jody Gerut needs to put up the same numbers he did last season, except this time not get injured and miss the final month.

4. Peavy and CY need to both pitch like aces, and CY can't get injured.

5. Heath Bell needs to be a legit closer and at least one other guy has to emerge from the bullpen as a reliable stopper.

6. A-Gon, Kouz and Giles need to have similar seasons as they did in '08.

And there you have it. The Padres could also use some help from their 3-5 starters, a few more reliable bullpen arms, a decent hitting second baseman and a catcher who can throw guys out and hit over .200, but let's not get greedy. I'm not telling you what the Padres need to win a World Series, I'm just telling you what they need to be good.

Of course this post assumes Peavy, Khalil, Giles, etc. will be Padres come April. And that's a big assumption.

When The Games Are Done

Careful, kid. Now that the Phillies finished off the Rays last night in dramatic, three-inning fashion, that stove you're about to touch just got hot.

Figuratively speaking, of course.

The League has a ton of big stories this off-season (CC, A.J., Manny, to name just three) but no team sits more at a turning point than the San Diego Padrinos. Will they trade Peavy? Will they re-sign Trevor Hoffman? Will they pick up Brian Giles' option? Will John and Becky Moores cut Petco Park in half forcing the team to play its home games back at the Q? These are all critical questions that will determine the core of the Padres team next year.

With Peavy, Giles and Hoffman they will have, if some of the younger guys make progress, Chris Young regains his 2006-2007 form and the bullpen becomes (once again) a strength, a competitive team. Without those three guys they are looking at 2011 or later for their next winning season. I don't know about you but that's a long time to wait. If would feel like the beginning of this decade all over again. And that was no fun. Might as well sign Klesko and Nevin and see if Bubba Trammell is available.

So here's to hoping the Drinos make some good decisions, and if they do decide to part ways with Peavy, Giles and Trevor, that they make the right moves on the back end to get this team winning again before the 20-teens.

Jacopo Peavy

Der Peavenstein.

A pretty good pitcher, a pretty good guy (though he talks a bit too much in the press), a fiery competitor (though he gets a bit too fired up at times) and, at least for the moment, a career Padre.

These are all attributes I can respect.

If I were Peavy I would stay in the Diago and play for the Padres and max out my statistics and be the stud guy on a team that, contrary to the belief of some so-called "experts," has a chance to be competitive over the next few years. Granted, if he is traded to Atlanta or Houston or St. Louis he may have a better shot at getting to the playoffs next season (although I'm not sure that's true with the Bravos, they aren't all that great), but with the Drinos he could continue to be the Man and partner with CY and A-Gon to help the rooks learn the ropes.

I like that idea.

But Peav loves the Bravos, and he's buds with Roy Oswalt and he thinks (rightly) that the Cardinals are a bunch of winners. Plus he always has Semmes, Al-a-bama on the mind. He's a Southern boy through and through.

Whatever happens I wish Peav good luck and, if he is traded, that KT fleeces his new team in the transaction.

Yeeee-haw!

Drinos 3, Brew Crew 2

That was one heck of a 7th inning yesterday. Sheets is shutting down the Drinos with 6 innings of 1 hit ball when, out of nowhere, the Drinos go single, double, single, sinking sac fly (nice baserunning by Chase to score on that), near bomb fly out by Edgar (another nice catch by Cameron on that) and single. All that plated 3 runs and then, on a passed ball, Gerut gets home and clearly slaps a hand on the plate but the ump doesn't see it and calls him out when Kendall tags him just as Jody is about to walk into the dugout.

All year long that's the kind of break that's gone against the Drinos but yesterday, despite another mash by Cameron (this time off Trevor in the 9th), the Padres hung on to win. Of course it was all set up by a great outing by Peavy to keep the Drinos close and in a position to win in the later innings.

And tonight the Phils are in town to start a three game weekend series. The real question though is whether the Padres are going to sign Dykstra.

If I was a betting man I'd say no.

Brew Crew 7, Drinos 1

Didn't see much of last night's game. Saw A-Gon whiff at at C.C. slider in the dirt. Saw a brief replay of Chase's sliding catch and Jody's reach-out slap bomb over the centerfield wall. Saw footage of Cory Hart's bases-clearing triple that hung up in the left-field corner. But that's about it.

That's all I really needed to see. If you had asked me to predict the outcome of any sporting event around the world last night - the Men's Individual All-Around Finals, the U.S.-Greece Men's Basketball game, one of those swimming relays, any other game on the MLB circuit - I would have been most confident that C.C. Sabathia would beat the Padres at Petco. There was really no question. The psychology of this Padres team right now is that they were beaten before they even took the field.

But today is different.

Today is Peavy, in the afternoon, under the sun.

So bring on this Ben Sheets character. And let's watch A-Gon and the boys unleash the fury.