Baseball America's Projected 2011 Padres Starting Rotation And Closer ... Made In 2008

Yesterday I listed Baseball America's projected lineup for the 2011 Padres as published in their 2008 Prospect Handbook. Today we look at BA's projected rotation and closer.

Starting Rotation

1. Jake Peavy

Kevin Towers, in what was likely his second greatest trade as Padres GM, dealt Peavy to the White Sox midway through the 2009 season in exchange for three pitchers, one of whom was Clayton Richard who has become a mainstay of the Padres rotation. As for Peavy, he made 17 mostly-mediocre starts for the White Sox last season before his right shoulder muscle detached from his back and his season abruptly ended. If he can approach a Peavy-esque season in 2011, the White Sox look to be favorites to win the AL Central.

2. Chris Young

If only the man could stay healthy. I loved the work CY did in his four starts - three during the ultimately unsuccessful stretch run - last season. Unfortunately it was just that: four starts. If CY and the Padres could somehow find it in their mutual hearts and pocketbooks to reunite for another season or two, he would immediately become my favorite Padre. I like his demeanor, his competitiveness, his work ethic, his overall beastliness. Make it happen, Jed. Bring CY back!

3. Mat Latos

Forget #3 starter. Latos, as a 23-year old, may be the #1. His stellar sophomore campaign - 14-10, 2.92 ERA, 189 Ks, 1.08 WHIP - included a remarkable 15-game stretch where he pitched at least 5 innings and did not allow more than 2 runs in any start. I also liked his gutty performance on the final day of the season in Frisco. Though the Padres lost that game 3-0, Latos manned up, attacked the Giants hitters, and kept the Padres within striking distance. The kid gets it.

4. Wade LeBlanc

Wade has a shot to make the rotation out of Spring Training, although if he does I imagine Jed will think something has gone wrong with his well-laid plans. I like Wade and think he is capable of success in short spurts, perhaps as a change of pace after a hard thrower like Latos, before hitters start to figure out his marginal stuff. The key to winning at Petco, however, is starting pitching depth, so Wade will play a role on the 2011 Padres, whether he makes the team coming out of Peoria or not.

5. Drew Miller

Another injury-plagued career. Drew pitched poorly in 2008 and then, as the '09 season began, underwent Tommy John surgery. A second surgery on his ulnar nerve followed later that summer. He finally made a comeback last season in Fort Wayne and gave up 5 hits and 4 earned runs in 3.1 innings pitched. He did strikeout 5 of the 16 batters he faced. He retired voluntarily last May, a few days after his last outing.

Closer

Heath Bell

Well done, BA. Well done. What more can I say here about Heath? He was probably the best closer in baseball last season and I only wish he could have showcased his beastliness in the playoffs. The Padres will likely deal him at the trade deadline in 2011, gathering another haul of future monsters. Until that time I'm just going to enjoy watching him dominate the ninth inning for the Drinos.

My Padres Lineup

I'm fully on board with the recent moves Jed Hoyer has made to prepare the Padres for the 2011 season. In particular I love the Brad Hawpe signing. I fully expect him to approximate his career average line of .279/.373/.490. If he doesn't I'll be shocked.

Here's the lineup I'd like to see for the Drinos on Opening Day 2011, an afternoon tilt in St. Louis on March 31:

1. Will Venable - RF

2. Orlando Hudson - 2B

3. Brad Hawpe - 1B

4. Ryan Ludwick - LF

5. Chase Headley - 3B

6. Nick Hundley - C

7. Jason Bartlett - SS

8. Cameron Maybin - CF

I've seen some suggest that Bartlett should bat #2 with O Dog in the three hole, but I'd like a bit more pop from the #3 spot. If you want to switch Hundley and Bartlett in the six and seven spots, I'm fine with that.

And the rotation:

LHP - Clayton Richard

RHP - Mat Latos

RHP - Aaron Harang

RHP - Tim Stauffer

RHP - Chris Young

It's doubtful the Padres will sign CY, but I'd like to see them give him a two-year deal with choice incentives. CY must know Petco is his best shot at putting up good numbers so he should accept such an offer. If CY goes elsewhere I'd like to see Cory Luebke in the #5 spot. I like how he throws with a downward plane from the left side.

Happy New Year.

CY!

Wants to remain a Padre.

"Playoff Atmosphere" In The Diego ... And I'm Not There

I couldn't be more disappointed that I'm not out in the Diego this weekend for the start of the Padres' critical 7-game homestand. Coupled with the Oktoberfest beer promotion, the playoff implications of tonight's game should have legions of Padres fans rocking Petco.

How choice will that be? Can't believe I'm missing it.

But there is good news. I was just able to talk my wife out of going to see The Town tonight in lieu of staying home and watching the Padres-Reds game on my computer.

Yep. Just another wild Friday night in Manhattan.

Go Padres.

When Last I Saw The Padres In Frisco

It's no secret that, after Petco and PNC, Pac Bell is my favorite ballpark in baseball. The location downtown is choice, the views of the water are epic and the food and beverage options are plenty.

San Francisco is a fantastic town in general and I've had the luck to visit it often in the past few years, most recently in July 2009 when I took in a Buccos-Pirates game in between days of the California Bar Examination. Matt Cain and Zach Duke dueled in a 0-0 tie through 9 (Boch let Cain pitch the full 9 innings, 111 pitches) before the Gints won it on a Randy Winn single in the 10th. The stadium was packed and it was a gorgeous, sunny day.

Rewind about 22 months earlier when I was in town on a Monday night and my visit coincided with a Drinos roadtrip. If you'll recall September 2007, the Padres were in the midst of a pennant race and fielded an excellent team, but had just been swept by the Rockies at home (a haunting preview in retrospect), including, the day before, a loss in the infamous "Milton Bradley Game," where Bud Black accidentally tore up Milton's knee while trying to prevent him from murdering an umpire. Milton had homered in that game, his 11th in 169 plate appearances as a Padre, but would never bat again that season.

It was under that gloomy cloud that the Padres took the field at Pac Bell on Monday, September 24, 2007. My specific memories of the game aren't many, but I do recall a few details:

- Before the game I had a few beers at a sports bar near the park - I think it was O'Neil's, but it may have been Kate O'Brien's or even the Brickhouse - and watched the MNF pregame show. It was a Saints game and I remember thinking that Brees likely wouldn't lead the Saints any further than he had the previous season when the Saints lost to the Bears in the NFC Championship game. I remember having that exact thought. So much for predictions.

- Right before game time, I scalped three seats in the 200-level club section just to the right of home plate. The tickets cost surprisingly little and my two friends - both students at Berkeley at the time - were pleased with the price. We housed many gourmet food items throughout the game.

- The game itself is murky, likely because the Padres got rolled. I do remember seeing Klesko in closeup on the jumbotron, and, looking at the boxscore now, he did have a solid game (2-5, 2 runs scored, a ribeye). For the Padres, of course Adrian doubled and had 3 hits, and Brady Clark, taking over for Milton Bradley, had 2 hits, one of them a double. I was probably hopeful at that point that Brady was the answer for the stretch run. So sad.

- CY got rocked in this game, which was not a good sign. I also see the Padres ran out Cla Meredith in relief. It's a nice feeling to know that, as marginally good as Cla was in his seasons with the Padres, he would be the worst relief pitcher on this year's squad. That thought gives me comfort the Padres can pull this thing out this season.

That's all I remember at the moment. I won't be in Frisco for the series this weekend, but I'm more or less certain the Drinos can get it dun without me. Tonight Clay Richard leads the charge against Jonathan Sanchez and crew.

It's safe to say that Sanchez will be eating his words by night's end.

Blanks Getting the Elbow Rebuilt

Our boy Blanksy is going under the knife to have his elbow repaired. Tommy John surgery for a leftfielder.

This a year after a foot injury kept him out of the last month of the season.

Makes you wonder if the big guy is a bit frail. Kind of like Chris Young. Or Yao Ming.

What this tells me is that the Padres need to sign Adrian stat. Give him the 8 years, win a Series, then ship him to the Yanks in Year 4 for a couple prospects.

Get it dun, Jed.

(Oh and go Padres tonight against the Dadgers.)

Looking Ahead To Peoria, AZ (aka Spring Training)

Spring Training approaches, folks, and in anticipation of that glorious time of the year, I recently posted a comment over at Ducksnorts asking Geoff Young, the renowned Padre blogger, what he plans to focus on when the Padres take the field in Arizona next month.

Geoff decided to use the comment as the basis for his post today at Ducksnorts.

It should come as no surprise that Geoff highlights several of the most intriguing issues facing the Padres as they prepare for the season. In addition to Geoff's points, I'd just add the following notes:

1. CY watch. While I am optimistic that the Padres as a whole can exceed expectations this season (85 wins and in the Wild Card conversation as late as mid-September if things break right), I am not overly optimistic as to Chris Young's chances to pitch an injury-free, ace-like season. He's just burned me too many times. I'll be rooting for him, but I'll also be keeping a wary eye open to any more shoulder and back problems that could further impede a return of the old CY.

2. Blanks and Headley. A key part of my optimistic projection for the Padres is that Blanks and Headley mash and, along with Adrian, form an actual, real live, scary heart-of-the-order for the Padres. I'm not sure that's possible - a Padres lineup that actually scares people - but if there is any chance of it happening then Blanks and Headley must perform like the #1 prospects they used to be.

3. Query the Padres bullpen? I have high hopes for these guys - Heath, Mike Adams, Luke Gregerson, Ed Mujica, Joe Thatcher - so high, in fact, that I think they have the potential to be the best in baseball. But other than Heath, there is not a long record of consistency and injury-free baseball from this group. In Arizona, I'll be watching for indications that these guys are for real, and that they won't regress or spend a lot of time this season twiddling their thumbs on the DL.

So that's that. Thanks to Geoff for using my question for the basis of a post, and let's get this season underway.

The Padres Starting Rotation

Trust me, Monkey, I know how you feel. That's the exact reaction I had this morning when I woke up and read the news that the Padres were calling up Walter Silva and Wade LeBlanc to replace the injured Jake Peavy and Chris Young in the starting rotation.

I knew this was coming ever since news broke of the Peavy-CY injuries, but to actually see it in print this morning had me taken aback.

Just take a look at the five men making up the Padres starting rotation as of this moment (career numbers in parentheses):

Kevin Correia (17-27, 4.58 ERA, 1.47 WHIP)
Chad Gaudin (30-31, 4.62, 1.53)
Josh Geer (3-3, 5.04, 1.35)
Wade LeBlanc (1-3, 8.02, 2.06)
Walter Silva (0-0, 6.52, 1.76)

Doesn't exactly call to mind the 1971 Orioles. In fact, it barely calls to mind the 1971 Padres (I'd give my favorite merino full zip sweater for a little Dave Roberts and Clay Kirby right now.)

But I digress. I don't want to take anything away from these five "Gentlemen of the Mound." I'm sure they'll do the best they can and, obviously, I wish them well. In fact, when Geer throws this afternoon against the M's, I'm going to do him the honor of stopping work immediately and devoting my full attention to his outing on mlb.tv.

I figure that's the least I can do to show support for young Mr. Geer.

Good luck today, Josh.

And Monkey, relax. At least you have a sweet green turtleneck to wear.

Best,
Bevormo

CY In The Mountains

CY,

Tonight you throw down with the Rockies at Coors Field. I'm pretty excited for this game because I have a hunch you're going to be at your gangly best and will toss one of those rare pitching gems in the mountains.

Like Han Solo, I'm sure you never want to be told the odds, but here are your career numbers at Coors Field: 3-2, 6.00 ERA, 33 IP over 7 starts, with 17 walks and 26 strikeouts. Your WHIP is 1.55.

Basically, what I'm telling you is that I'm bucking the odds and going with my gut tonight.

And my gut says, "grbglblrglf." (That's "Chris Young will win tonight" in gut.)

Best,
Bevormo

ps - I met your wife once in Pittsburgh but I only talked to her for a second and it was before you were married and there wasn't much chemistry anyway. Not that she's not hot. Because she is. But I wouldn't touch her. Not that she's not hot enough to touch, it's just that I wouldn't. Because we're boys. There, now you know. I'm sorry.

Nick, CY Help Padres Sweep Giants

Phil,

Heady front 9 yesterday at Augusta. When you made the turn at 30 I had visions of a 64 and a third green jacket for you dancing in my head. Alas, you put it in the water at 12 and then missed two easy puts on 15 and 17 that would have put you in striking distance of Angel Cabrera, Chad Campbell and Kenny "The Kentuckian" Perry. Instead of joining them in the playoff you were probably already on your third Jack and coke in the clubhouse, trading war stories with Arnie Palmer and Vijay Singh and Freddy Couples. Real tough life you guys lead.

At a minimum yesterday you must have been pleased with the Padres sweep of the Giants. I know you are a Diego boy and, if you haven't had time to notice (I know you've been busy), the hometown team is looking good this young season. Nick Hundley, the team's 25-year old catcher, had four hits and was just a home run away from hitting for the cycle. And CY, the Padres' 6'10" stud pitcher, made the Gints look foolish over his 7 innings of 4 hit ball. Add in a Chase Headley 2-run bomb and the boys looked very good yesterday.

In closing, Phil, nice work at the Masters and I hope you enjoy a few well-earned days off. But don't rest too easy. The U.S. Open is just two months away and I'm already betting this is your year to win it.

Best,
Bevormo

How The Padres Will Be Good in '09

Here is what needs to happen for the Padres to be good in 2009:

1. One of the young players (Venable, Headley, Antonelli) needs to step up and become a feared beast at the plate. Let's take Headley because he seemingly has the most potential, and is the furthest along. Headley needs to hit about .300 24 100.

2. Khalil needs a comeback season. He needs to hit like he did in 2007 or, at a minimum, somewhere between how he hit in 2007 and how he hit from 2004 - 2006.

3. Jody Gerut needs to put up the same numbers he did last season, except this time not get injured and miss the final month.

4. Peavy and CY need to both pitch like aces, and CY can't get injured.

5. Heath Bell needs to be a legit closer and at least one other guy has to emerge from the bullpen as a reliable stopper.

6. A-Gon, Kouz and Giles need to have similar seasons as they did in '08.

And there you have it. The Padres could also use some help from their 3-5 starters, a few more reliable bullpen arms, a decent hitting second baseman and a catcher who can throw guys out and hit over .200, but let's not get greedy. I'm not telling you what the Padres need to win a World Series, I'm just telling you what they need to be good.

Of course this post assumes Peavy, Khalil, Giles, etc. will be Padres come April. And that's a big assumption.

Drinos 16, Mountains 7

That game on Sunday - a 16-7 bomb fest at Coors Field - had a lot to like, and some to not like.

What I Liked
- Gerut and Kouz continuing their hot streaks and going yard early with authority
- Livan Hernandez throwing up batting practice balls
- Giles' 2 doubles and bomb to show that he likes being a Padre
- A-Gon going 4-5 with 3 runs and 2 ribeyes
- Luke Carlin hitting his first major league bomb, a 3-run job that came two innings after the Rockies scored 7 runs to close the gap from 11-0 to 11-7

What I Didn't Like
- CY's fourth inning debacle, giving up 7 earned runs to let the Rockies back in the game (although arguably the official scorer could have hung an error on E Gon for that liner past his glove)

Metsies 6, Drinos 5

Darn it, Mike. CY goes out and gives up 1 hit through 5.1 and then you come in and promptly give up the go-ahead three-run bomb to 'Nando Tatis. What a shame. It's too bad too because you've been an absolute monster this season. You've taken on the role of Sleeper Reliever Snaked by Kevin Towers, a role played in the past by the likes of Aki Otsuka, Scott Linebrink and Heath Bell, and performed admirably.

Until last night at Shea, that is.

But these things happen, and, indeed, I partially blame myself for last night's loss. You see, I was at a softball game in Central Park - got smoked 13-4 but that's another story - and missed the first five innings of the game. But then the team went to Brother Jimmy's at 81st and Amsterdam for post-game appetizers and pitchers of cold Coors Louie, and, as I walked in, saw that the Drinos were winning 2-1 and the Metsies had amassed only 1 hit. Of course I immediately bragged to one my softball teammates, a Met fan by the name of D.P. McGillicutty, that the Metsies could not handle CY. No sooner did those words escape my mouth than I look back at the television and see Tatis trotting around the bases and the score flip from Drinos 2-1 to Metsies 4-2.

What a disaster.

Jody - who can hit - almost brought the boys back in the ninth but Giles' rope didn't quite clear Beltran's head and thus the game ended, another loss for the Drinos.

Better luck tonight against Petey Martinez. Here's hoping the Pads pummel that old guy.