Baseball America's Projected 2011 Padres Lineup ... Made In 2008

I perused my copy of the 2008 Baseball America Prospect Handbook today and came across BA's projection of the 2011 Padres lineup.

Recognizing that it's no easy task to predict a ballclub's lineup three years out, it is still a rather humorous read.

I'll list out the projected lineup and let you know (as if you didn't already know) where they are now:

C - Mitch Canham

Mitch was drafted for his bat and that hasn't really come around. His best year was at Lake Elsinore in 2008 when he hit .285/.382/.434. The last two seasons, however, he's faltered a bit, showing very little pop (.316 slugging % last summer). He'll most likely start the season in AAA and perhaps the hitter-friendly conditions in Tucson will help him find his stroke.

1B - Adrian Gonzalez

In the most marquee deal of the offseason, Jed moved Adrian to Boston for three top prospects and Eric Patterson. Adrian has now taken his talents to the Fens.

2B - Matt Antonelli

In a move that surprised me a bit, the Padres released Antonelli in the offseason. He has since signed with the Nationals and will likely have a shot to make their major league roster out of Spring Training.

3B - Kevin Kouzmanoff

Jed shipped Kouz to the A's last January for Scotty "Bombs" Hairston. The move opened up a spot for Chase Headley at third base.

SS - Khalil Greene

A sad story for young Kal El. His social anxiety disorder has decimated his career. The Padres shipped him to the Cardinals two years ago for Luke Gregerson and Mark Worrell. After spending a rough season with St. Louis, he signed with Texas last January, only to decide he was not well enough to report to Spring Training. The Rangers voided his contract and, as best I can tell, Khalil is still a free agent.

LF - Chase Headley

Moved to third base following the Kouz trade. Only man in this projected lineup who is in the actual lineup.

CF - Drew Cumberland

BA's most interesting projection. Cumberland is a middle infield prospect that may have the athleticism to roam the Petco outfield. He in injury-prone, however, so a move to the outfield seems unlikely. He was having a break out year last summer until an injury ended his season. If he comes out raking in '11 the Padres might not be able to keep him on the farm.

RF - Cedric Hunter

One of the more curious prospects in the Drinos system. He was a high-school draft pick that has over 5 years of pro experience, is still only 22, and has hit at every level. Yet for whatever reason, perhaps an overly complicated swing and/or questionable pop, he is rarely mentioned among the best of the best of the Padres prospects. He hit .287/.342/.397 at AA and AAA last season. He should get a shot in the bigs at some point, maybe later this summer if the Padres are out of the race.

Tomorrow I'll look at BA's projected rotation and closer. It's all very fun to read.

Jed Hoyer Dispenses With Grady Fuson

Looks like one of Jed Hoyer's first moves as Padres GM is removing Grady Fuson as vice president of scouting and player development. Fuson was on the job for 5 years.

Scouting and player development is probably the most important job on a mid-to-small market team, so I have no problem with Jed bringing in his own guy for the job. I'm also confident that Jed will select someone who will know what he's doing. I have no specific reason to be confident about that, but I am.

For Grady's part, he did an okay job in his 5 years. Successes and potential successes include Kyle Blanks, Will Venable, Mat Latos, Nick Hundley, Wade LeBlanc and Chase Headley. Disappointments and potential disappointments include Matt Antonelli, Cesar Carrillo, Cesar Ramos and Nick Schmidt. That's not a complete list. That's just a list I copied from an article in the U-T.

As with any new hire, it will take a few years to know if Jed is moving the Drinos player development system in the right direction. I like the direction the system moved last year with all the power arms KT traded for, and the development of players like James Darnell and Jaff Decker. Hopefully Jed can do even better.

Antonelli's Bomb

The 2009 Baseball America Prospect Handbook arrived on my doorstep this afternoon. I peeled it open and found that the Padres farm system fell to 29th (out of 30) in the BA rankings. Rumors of that precipitous fall (the Padres were ranked 12th last year) have been circulating around the web for a week or so, but I was still annoyed to see it in print today.

Fact is, I think BA is wrong.

BA's logic in ranking the Padres so low seems to be that Chase Headley and Nick Hundley have graduated to the majors (and thus no longer qualify for the rankings), while other prospects, such as Wade LeBlanc, Drew Miller, Nick Schmidt, Will Inman, Steve Garrison, Cory Luebke, Yefri Carvajal, Cesar Ramos and Cesar Carrillo, have suffered injuries or simply underperformed. No less than 10 Padres from last year's top 30 are still in the Padres system but have "dropped out" of the top 30 rankings. I haven't compared those numbers to other teams but that smacks of a high percentage.

Perhaps no Padre farmhand is more responsible for the lower ranking than Matt Antonelli. He had a rough season in AAA and a poor showing during a September cup of coffee in the Bigs, and now BA seems to have written him off and made him the poster boy for a 17 point drop in the team rankings. If you don't believe me visit your nearest Barnes & Noble and flip through the book for free. You'll see.

But I don't buy BA's logic. This blog, among others, thinks BA ranks the Padres farm system way too low. Not only that, methinks Matty Antonelli is going to rebound this season. He may even win the starting job out of Spring Training. That's what the hunch monster grumbling in my stomach is telling me, anyway.

In what is both a review and preview of better days, I posted the above photo of Matt Antonelli's first - and currently only - major league bomb. It happened last September 15 in the top of the 3rd inning at Coors Field in Colorado. Jason Hirsh had come on in relief and struck out Nick Hundley while Chase Headley bounced off second base. Antonelli stepped in and Hirsh, clearly scared out of his wits at the prospect of pitching to Antonelli, threw three straight balls nowhere near the plate. Hirsh grooved the 3-0 pitch for a strike and then, on 3-1, he left a fastball on the outside corner and Antonelli leaned over the plate and drove it on a line over the left field wall.

Voila. Two. Run. Bomb.

Unlike BA, I have a feeling Antonelli has a lot more of that type of AB in his future.

Prospect Lists A Plenty

Yesterday I pre-ordered one of my favorite annual book purchases: the Baseball America Prospect Handbook. It's kind of overpriced (like $23 bucks or something) for a product you have to buy every year and that is mostly filled with data about players who will never see the big leagues, but it always has a good feel to it and has a good book smell and is packed with information that gets me excited about future Padre teams.

I'm pretty excited to get this year's copy. Mostly I want to see where Kellen Kulbacki (pictured above) and Kyle Blanks rank. I think those two hitters have Major League bats and could see at bats this season with the Big Club. Kulbacki will start the season with AA San Antonio and Blanks will start with AAA Portland. Kulbacki may be a year away but it's possible Blanks will get a September call up so the team can evaluate whether he or A Gon will be the starting 1B for the Drinos in 2010. The other will be dealt - I hope - for a haul of beasts.

Most everyone and their brother puts out prospect lists these days, all the major publications and all the best bloggers included. Some of the best Padre blogs - Ducksnorts, Friar Forecast, Mad Friars (not really a blog), Padres Revolution - all discuss the minors and do it well. (Gaslamp Ball focuses more on the big league club and that's very refreshing in an old-school way.) Of course DePodesta's blog always talks up the minor league players and draft picks and such.

Reviewing the various lists, here are in my mind the three biggest questions about the Padre prospects:

- what was wrong with Matt Antonelli last season? Was it just a fluke? Will he rebound? Even if he does rebound, will he be a star or just an average second baseman?;

- what is the plan for Blanks? Assuming he mashes at AAA like he has at every other level, will they trade him? Give him reps in LF? Trade A Gon?; and

- will any of the injured pitchers make comebacks? Cesar Carrillo, Matt Bush and Nick Schmidt are all first round draft picks who have had Tommy John surgery in the last few years. If one or two or three of them regain their promise the Padres could have a sneaky strong back of the rotation in a few years.

Time will provide the answers to these questions. Let's hope we like the answers.