Padres Road Splits: A Study In Raking (More Or Less)

It's no secret that Petco Park is a place where hits rarely happen. It is a cavernous place where fly balls stop dead against the dense ocean air. It's a place where hitters go mad, and pitchers careers are saved. It's a place where even the game's best hitters - Adrian Gonzalez for one - beg and plead to leave. You have to feel sorry for hitters who have 81-games worth of at bats in a place like Petco Park. (At least as sorry as you can feel for someone who gets to play big league baseball and spend most of his time in the Diego.)

But what of those hitters when they are out on the road hitting in other, more friendly parks? Do they start raking uncontrollably, putting up monster numbers?

I'm gonna go ahead and say yes.

Here are the road splits for Padres "starters" as of today:

C - Rob Johnson: .247/.293/.365 .658 OPS

1B - Jesus Guzman: .296/.305/.457 .762 OPS (only guy hitting better at Petco)

2B - Orlando Hudson: .270/.391/.351 .743 OPS

SS - Jason Bartlett: .265/.324/.327 .651 OPS

3B - Chase Headley: .333/.404/.470 .874 OPS

LF - Kyle Blanks: .361/.425/.667 1.092 OPS

CF - Cameron Maybin: .320/.367/.485 .852 OPS

RF - Will Venable: .312/.364/.475 .839 OPS

Yes, Blanks is working on a small sample, but even after things even out, I'm certain his numbers will be better on the road than at Petco. (Incidentally, even Ryan Ludwick was almost marginally average on the road: .269/.314/.398 .712 OPS.)

So what I'm seeing is four guys with an OPS north of .800, and three guys with OBPs over .390. I'm particularly impressed by Orlando de la Noche's numbers. A .391 OBP? Who knew? Makes you wonder what kind of season he'd be putting together if he was on, say, the DBacks, Astros, or Brewers, all teams that play in hitters havens.

And how about Headley and Maybin? As my advisor Tam O'Flannell said today, Maybin is putting up near star-quality numbers, but you'd never know it because he plays half his games at Petco. I'd add that Headley also falls into that category. Maybe not "star" category, but certainly a player to be reckoned with.

And come to think of it that's a pretty good way to judge a team. How many guys do they put up there that need to be reckoned with? To put it another way, how many guys do they put up there that can't be ignored? I'd say on the road the Padres have 6-7 of those guys, arguably one or two more. That's a team that can be a winner.

The Day Spring Training Begins

Today is the day all the Padres players report to Spring Training. The pitchers and catchers reported last week, and most of the position players already checked in, but today's the day they all have to be there. The team gives them physicals today, and then tomorrow they start workouts.

I once told my boss that I hoped to be in a position one day where I could just take off the entire month of March, go to Arizona, and watch Spring Training games. He sighed and said, me too. I appreciated that response because he just as easily could have said, "You want March off? Fine, take it. And take the rest of the year off too, without pay."

Here are the storylines I'll be following in Peoria:

1. Will Cameron Maybin offend every member of the Padres front office with his tweets?

2. Will the Red Sox prospects - Rizzo, Kelly - look noticeably better than all the Padres prospects?

3. Will any pitcher stake a clear claim to the #5 spot in the rotation?

4. Will Kyle Blanks demonstrate that he has any semblance of a hitting stroke back?

5. Will Aaran Harang look like he can be a dependable innings eater throughout the season?

I'm sure more stories will develop but this is what I'll be looking at in the first week or so.

What a glorious time of year.

Blanks Getting the Elbow Rebuilt

Our boy Blanksy is going under the knife to have his elbow repaired. Tommy John surgery for a leftfielder.

This a year after a foot injury kept him out of the last month of the season.

Makes you wonder if the big guy is a bit frail. Kind of like Chris Young. Or Yao Ming.

What this tells me is that the Padres need to sign Adrian stat. Give him the 8 years, win a Series, then ship him to the Yanks in Year 4 for a couple prospects.

Get it dun, Jed.

(Oh and go Padres tonight against the Dadgers.)

First Place At The All-Star Break

Yesterday, on the final day of scheduled games before the All-Star break, the Padres salvaged a win over the charging Colorado Rackies to finish the first-half of the season all alone in first place in the NL West.

Nice.

I have been watching the first-half of the season with great interest, but admittedly have had my focus drawn to the World Cup over the last month. Now that the WC is over and done with, the focus is now fully on baseball for what promises to be a solid second half of the season.

Yesterday's game, in fact, provided one of my first fist-pump moments of the season, when Rackies' pitcher Matt Belisle errantly threw to home in the top of the 8th, allowing Aaron Cunningham and Jerry Hairston, Jr. to score the tying and go-ahead runs when the ball skipped past Miguel Olivo. Then our boy Everth topped it off with a two-run pop-up bomb in the 9th to give Heath the cushion he needed to close out the game.

What a fine way to enter the break.

The second half starts for the Padres next Friday and promises to be a tense battle of wits and baseball acumen. To hold on to first place and ice the NL West, the Padres need to improve their play over the next two-and-a-half months, no small feat given their stellar play to date. Production from last August's heroes, Will Venable, Kyle Blanks and E Cab, as well as continued dominance from the starting rotation and bullpen, is a must. A trade for another starting pitcher may be in order.

Suffice to say the roster will change a bit over the next twenty days. Here's hoping Jed makes all the right moves.

Up In San Fran

Last night's game between soft-tossing lefties Wade LeBlanc and Barry Zito felt interminable. And that last inning when Heath Bell kept throwing breaking pitch after breaking pitch to the immortal Eli Whiteside aged me about 14 years.

That's right. I'm now 47.

Another thing I didn't like about last night's game: Scotty "Bombs" Hairston making the final out of the 2nd inning at third base, leaving Adrian standing in the on deck circle. C'mon, Scotty. You've got to stay at second there and let Adrian blast you in.

A thing I did like about last night's game: after Kyle Blanks looking horrendous on Ks in his first two at bats, the camera cutting to Adrian talking to Kyle on the bench. Kyle walked in his final three at bats and took noticeably more aggressive swings. Nicely done, Adrian.

Tonight we've got Clayton against Matty Cain. If the Drinos pull this one out too - and I'm at the point where I almost expect the Padres to win every night - then I'll continue to be very pleased.

Looking Ahead To Peoria, AZ (aka Spring Training)

Spring Training approaches, folks, and in anticipation of that glorious time of the year, I recently posted a comment over at Ducksnorts asking Geoff Young, the renowned Padre blogger, what he plans to focus on when the Padres take the field in Arizona next month.

Geoff decided to use the comment as the basis for his post today at Ducksnorts.

It should come as no surprise that Geoff highlights several of the most intriguing issues facing the Padres as they prepare for the season. In addition to Geoff's points, I'd just add the following notes:

1. CY watch. While I am optimistic that the Padres as a whole can exceed expectations this season (85 wins and in the Wild Card conversation as late as mid-September if things break right), I am not overly optimistic as to Chris Young's chances to pitch an injury-free, ace-like season. He's just burned me too many times. I'll be rooting for him, but I'll also be keeping a wary eye open to any more shoulder and back problems that could further impede a return of the old CY.

2. Blanks and Headley. A key part of my optimistic projection for the Padres is that Blanks and Headley mash and, along with Adrian, form an actual, real live, scary heart-of-the-order for the Padres. I'm not sure that's possible - a Padres lineup that actually scares people - but if there is any chance of it happening then Blanks and Headley must perform like the #1 prospects they used to be.

3. Query the Padres bullpen? I have high hopes for these guys - Heath, Mike Adams, Luke Gregerson, Ed Mujica, Joe Thatcher - so high, in fact, that I think they have the potential to be the best in baseball. But other than Heath, there is not a long record of consistency and injury-free baseball from this group. In Arizona, I'll be watching for indications that these guys are for real, and that they won't regress or spend a lot of time this season twiddling their thumbs on the DL.

So that's that. Thanks to Geoff for using my question for the basis of a post, and let's get this season underway.

Jed Hoyer Dispenses With Grady Fuson

Looks like one of Jed Hoyer's first moves as Padres GM is removing Grady Fuson as vice president of scouting and player development. Fuson was on the job for 5 years.

Scouting and player development is probably the most important job on a mid-to-small market team, so I have no problem with Jed bringing in his own guy for the job. I'm also confident that Jed will select someone who will know what he's doing. I have no specific reason to be confident about that, but I am.

For Grady's part, he did an okay job in his 5 years. Successes and potential successes include Kyle Blanks, Will Venable, Mat Latos, Nick Hundley, Wade LeBlanc and Chase Headley. Disappointments and potential disappointments include Matt Antonelli, Cesar Carrillo, Cesar Ramos and Nick Schmidt. That's not a complete list. That's just a list I copied from an article in the U-T.

As with any new hire, it will take a few years to know if Jed is moving the Drinos player development system in the right direction. I like the direction the system moved last year with all the power arms KT traded for, and the development of players like James Darnell and Jaff Decker. Hopefully Jed can do even better.

Oh Day Of Days Indeed

Quite a competition yesterday for "Best Moment of the Day":

1. Was it when I read Keyvius Sampson signed just before 1 PM eastern standard time?

2. Was it when Tam O'Flannell e-mailed me that Everett Williams, in my opinion the odd man out in terms of signability, was in the fold?

3. Was it when I heard Donavan Tate was trolling around Petco Park practicing his signature and - as we see in the photo above - getting fitted for a choice outfit?

4. Was it when Chase Headley tied the ballgame in the bottom of the 9th with a rope RBI double?

5. Was it when Kyle Blanks hit a monster 3-run walk off bomb to left center that left Mark Neely speechless?

6. Was it when I found out that my favorite Greek restaurant has take out and my wife kindly volunteered to walk the 12 blocks to pick up our order of lamb shanks, selection of Greek spreads, and a shrimp, orzo, spinach, tomato and feta salad?

7. Was it when I convinced myself, "Bevormo, you don't need to work out today"?

8. Or was it when I took a choice pre-dinner nap from 7:30 - 9 PM?

Man, this one might be too close to call.

The redemption of Cesar Carrillo begins in a few hours.

Beat The Mets

Something about the New York Mets always makes me think of the 1960s. Perhaps it has something to do with the fact the Mets began as a franchise in 1962, were terrible, and then turned it all around and had a World Championship in the bag by 1969.

If that turnaround doesn't lay claim to consideration as Team of the Decade, I don't know what will.

Of course the assocation with the '60s might also come from my many trips to Shea Stadium the past five years. That old park was built in 1964 and, until it was torn down earlier this year, always felt a bit like walking into a time machine each time I passed through its gates.

Not that any of this nostalgia changes the main point I want to convey this evening.

That is, I hope Kevin Correia dominates the Mets tonight and Kyle Blanks, Adrian Gonzalez and the boys send our old friend OP to an early shower.

Game on.

The Rumors Of My Demise Have Been Greatly Exaggerated

And you thought I might never return. So silly of you.

Anyway, yes, I am back and will now begin posting regularly as I have been, with minor exceptions, since January.

Should be a good time.

I'll let you know where I was and why I had to take a few weeks off in an upcoming post, but in the meantime, let me say that the Padrinos tee off against the Bravos in a few minutes time. Our boy Tim Stauffer takes the hill and looks to continue his legendary comeback season.

Let me also mention that in the few moments I've been able to watch the Padres over the past few weeks, I've liked what I've seen. Especially the play of Kyle Blanks, Will Venable, Everth Cabrera and wunderkind Mat Latos. And I'm not the only one. Geoff Young is so stoked by these guys that he invented a "modified box score" system specifically to track their performance the remainder of the season. Geoff's system seems a lot like my own highly scientific system of "watch the games and see if these guys do anything good."

Both systems are equally accurate measures of performance.

Go Padres! Tonight! Against the Braves!

The Padres Have Diapers And May Still Be Breastfeeding

The Padres are really rolling out the youngins this evening against the Rockies.

Here is tonight's lineup and their respective ages:

SS - Everth Cabrera (22)
CF - Tony Gwynn, Jr. (26)
1B - Adrian Gonzalez (27)
3B - Kevin Kouzmanoff (27)
RF - Will Venable (26)
LF - Kyle Blanks (22)
C - Eliezer Alfonzo (30)
2B - Edgar Gonzalez (31)
P - Kevin Correia (28)

I'm no mathemetician, but that's an average age of 26.5. That may not seem too young on first glance, but when you delve a bit deeper you can see the inexperience in this lineup. The two oldest dudes - Edgar and Eliezer - are journeyman who have never held down regular jobs. Edgar, in fact, was a 30-year old rookie just last season. Then you have Venable, a 26-year old rookie, and Gwynn, who at 26 has never spent a full season in the Bigs. Blanks and Cabrera are wee babes. Only Kouz and Adrian have legitimate big league track records.

Query if Bud Black has any passafires in the dugout.

Padres Organizational Lineup

As a mini-preview of the Padre prospect rankings through June that I will run tomorrow and Thursday, it occurred to me today that putting together a Padre Organizational Lineup might be an interesting exercise in looking at which players throughout the Padre system are truly performing this season.

What is a "Padre Organizational Lineup," you ask? Simply put, it's a starting lineup, position-by-position, of the Padres who have most dominated their position so far this season. What makes it interesting is that the lineup is determined based on performance measured against one's league peers. In other words, Kevin Kouzmanoff's performance is measured against other Major League third basemen, while Logan Forsythe's performance is measured against other Cal League (now Texas League) third basemen. So even though Kevin is farther along and (probably) a better big league third basemen than Logan, Logan's likely going to be the one to make this team at the Hot Corner.

So without further ado:

1. CF - Brad Chalk .305 1 37 .359 (20 bags) - Probably should go Scotty Bombs here but I wanted a prototypical leadoff man and I'm not putting Ced Hunter or Tony Gwynn, Jr. in this lineup.

2. 2B - Lance Zawadzki .316 13 55 .402 - I'm moving Lance to 2B because of the dismal performance by Padres 2B this season. Actually, Eckstein and Sogard have been okay, but I'm looking for some pop here.

3. 3B - Logan Forsythe .332 8 32 .480 - This is the toughest call in the entire system because you have Darnell in High A and Kouz has started to hit. I should probably put Darnell at third, move Logan to second and put Lance at short, but I really want the SS I have here (see below).

4. 1B - Adrian Gonzalez .269 24 47 .414 - The Franchise. Craig "Craigers" Cooper is having a season, but no way Adrian doesn't make this squad.

5. LF - Kyle Blanks .283 12 38 .393 - I feel like I'm selling out putting Kyle here because he hasn't dominated this season, but he looked good last week with the Padres and his numbers are pretty solid for AAA. If Luis Durango was still hitting in the .340s he'd probably have left field locked down.

6. RF - Mike Baxter .352 5 54 .424 - Very excited to see what Mike is going to do this September in San Diego.

7. SS - Beamer Weems .301 2 26 .476 - Go ahead, you make the case to keep him off this team. I just couldn't. He reportedly has the best glove of any SS in the Padres system and, for Heaven's sake, his OBP is out of this world. Until Beamer somehow shows me he can't hit higher level pitching, he's on my team.

8. C - Mitch Canham .271 2 31 .353 - Finding a catcher must be difficult because the Padres don't have one at any level this season who is dominating. Canham is holding his own at AA and that is respectable.

9. SP - Mat Latos 7-1 1.28 38/9 K/BB ratio - A few candidates here but Latos gets the call. I'd probably go Anthony Bass as my #2 and Cory Luebke as my #3, with Peavy and Nick Schmidt rounding out the starting five.

Closer - Heath Bell 3-1 1.39 36/12 22 saves - What a beast. Bryan Oland made it marginally interesting.

And there you have it.

Disagree? Let me know in the comments.

Kyle Blanks To The Bigs

Kyle,

Word on the street is that the Padres have called you up from Portland and you'll be at Petco this evening with the Big Club.

Congratulations, my good man, on your Major League debut.

Now, if I may be so bold, allow me to give you a bit of advice on some immediate actions to take when you arrive at the Park today. By following this advice you'll announce your presence with authority and immediately let the rest of the team know you're here to stay.

1. Drop a deuce in Brian Giles locker. This is a pre-emptive move because it is certain that Brian will be dropping a deuce in your locker soon. If he hasn't already.

2. Say hello to Chase Headley. Make sure to walk up to Chase and say, "Hey man, thanks for holding down my position for me. But I'm here now so you and your .230 batting average can plan on seeing a lot of pine." I'm sure Chase will appreciate that. It's bonding.

3. Get interview advice from Heath Bell. Heath is the only current Padre who gives good interviews. Seek him out this afternoon and get some tips on how to be interesting and provocative with the media. It's a sure way to get quoted on ESPN. If Heath isn't available, give Phil Nevin a call.

4. Ask to wear #19. Just kidding.

These are just a few things you can do today to take your mind off tonight's game and endear yourself to your new teammates. Feel free to improvise as needed.

Good luck.

Best,
Bevormo

Logan Forsythe ... And Other Top Padres Minor Leaguers

After the first month or so of the baseball season, here is this humble blog's ranking of the top Padre minor league performers.

Looking over the list, I'll make a few introductory comments:

1. I'll be surprised if Will Venable isn't starting in RF for the Padres by mid-July. I think the Padres will trade Brian Giles and give Venable a shot to earn the starting RF or CF job for Opening Day 2010.

2. The Logan Forsythe-James Darnell cage match to determine the Padres top 3B prospect will be epic this season. I've got Logan in the lead but I expect it to be a back-and-forth, bloody battle all season long.

3. A Padres team in, say, 2011 with Luis Durango and Everth Cabrera would be quick. Not necessarily good, but definitely quick.

Without further ado ...

Hitters

1. Logan Forsythe, 3B Lake Elsinore: Logan is batting .321 with 2 bombs and 9 ribeyes. He has also walked 22 times. His numbers aren't quite as good as Jimmy Darnell's but I'm putting Logan #1 for the first ranking of the season because he shares a name with Wolverine. And we all know what a beast Wolverine is.

2. James Darnell, 3B, Fort Wayne: Jimmy D is only hitting .273 but he has walked 26 times already for an .OBP of .467 and an OPS of 1.013 (second best in the Padres minor league system). He has 3 bombs and 11 ribeyes.

3. Craig Cooper, 1B, San Antonio: If I were Craig Cooper I would beg Grady Fuson to let me learn 2B or C or trade me (actually I would never ask for a trade from the Padres ... who do you think I am?) because with AGon and Kyle Blanks ahead of him, and Felix Carrasco, Allan Dykstra and Matt Clark behind him, Craig has little shot to make the bigs with the Drinos. That said, Craig can hit a little. He's currently hitting .402 with a bomb and 12 RBI's. His OPS is 1.010, good for third in the Padres minor league system. It's not like Craig came out of nowhere (he was a 7th round pick in the 2006 draft), but I doubt he is a top developmental priority for the Drinos.

4. Lance Zawadzki, SS, Lake Elsinore: Along with Everth Cabrera and Drew Cumberland, Lance's presence gives the Padres three interesting - if not sure thing - MLB prospects at SS. I'm not saying the Padres shouldn't draft Grant Green this June, but these guys can all play a little (and this is not even mentioning Beamer Weems who has been an OBP machine this season). Lance is smoking the ball to the tune of .333 5 14 in only 40 or so at bats this season. He was a 4th rounder in '07 so he's got some talent.

5. Kyle Blanks, 1B-LF, Portland: Kyle is rolling right along, hitting .298 5 17 this season. His Ks are a bit high but I get the feeling he hasn't quite hit his groove yet. Look for the batting average to rise to about .320 by the end of May. And for the bombs to continue.

6. Will Venable, RF, Portland: Will can play. I'd say the Padres should call him up now if I didn't also like Jody, Scott, Chase and Brian so much. Of course, as I note above, Brian could be on his last days with the Padres. Will is hitting .278 5 14 so far this season.

7. Eric Sogard, 2B, San Antonio: Better than Antonelli? Maybe. Eric is lacing to the tune of .311 1 6, and with 19 walks his OPS is at .911. Not to shabby for a second baseman.

8. Drew Macias, CF, Portland: .318 2 6, .922 OPS, with a short stint on the big league club already this season. Bud Black seems to love Drew's defense and competitiveness so that bodes well for his call up potential. Personally, it's not that I don't like Drew, I just like Will more.

9. Luis Durango, LF-CF, San Antonio: The Fall of Ced Hunter is being well documented (he could be this year's Antonelli) and Durango so far has been there to step in. Luis is currently working on a .341 average with 15 bags and a .423 OBP. He has hit at every level, including .431 in a 72 at-bat stint at Lake Elsinore late last season (after hitting .300 in the pitchers haven that is the Midwest League). The Padres felt he didn't need a full season at High A and it looks like they were correct. CF on the Padres in 2010? Right now I'd say the job is wide open. Why not Luis?

Tomorrow the pitchers ...

Prospect Lists A Plenty

Yesterday I pre-ordered one of my favorite annual book purchases: the Baseball America Prospect Handbook. It's kind of overpriced (like $23 bucks or something) for a product you have to buy every year and that is mostly filled with data about players who will never see the big leagues, but it always has a good feel to it and has a good book smell and is packed with information that gets me excited about future Padre teams.

I'm pretty excited to get this year's copy. Mostly I want to see where Kellen Kulbacki (pictured above) and Kyle Blanks rank. I think those two hitters have Major League bats and could see at bats this season with the Big Club. Kulbacki will start the season with AA San Antonio and Blanks will start with AAA Portland. Kulbacki may be a year away but it's possible Blanks will get a September call up so the team can evaluate whether he or A Gon will be the starting 1B for the Drinos in 2010. The other will be dealt - I hope - for a haul of beasts.

Most everyone and their brother puts out prospect lists these days, all the major publications and all the best bloggers included. Some of the best Padre blogs - Ducksnorts, Friar Forecast, Mad Friars (not really a blog), Padres Revolution - all discuss the minors and do it well. (Gaslamp Ball focuses more on the big league club and that's very refreshing in an old-school way.) Of course DePodesta's blog always talks up the minor league players and draft picks and such.

Reviewing the various lists, here are in my mind the three biggest questions about the Padre prospects:

- what was wrong with Matt Antonelli last season? Was it just a fluke? Will he rebound? Even if he does rebound, will he be a star or just an average second baseman?;

- what is the plan for Blanks? Assuming he mashes at AAA like he has at every other level, will they trade him? Give him reps in LF? Trade A Gon?; and

- will any of the injured pitchers make comebacks? Cesar Carrillo, Matt Bush and Nick Schmidt are all first round draft picks who have had Tommy John surgery in the last few years. If one or two or three of them regain their promise the Padres could have a sneaky strong back of the rotation in a few years.

Time will provide the answers to these questions. Let's hope we like the answers.

You Get Nine Ribeyes, You Get A Mention

5-6, 2 dobles, 2 bombs and 9 ribeyes.

That's right. Nine ribeyes.

That was Kyle Blanks' line last night for the Padres' AA affiliate San Antonio Missions.

Blanks is a 21-year old 1B prospect drafted in 42nd round of the 2004 draft. He's 6'6'' and weighs over 270 pounds. BA jumped him from the Padres 29th rated prospect before 2007, to number 10 entering the 2008 season. Query where he'll rank next season now that Headley has graduated to the majors and Antonelli has slipped, but Ced Hunter and Kellen Kulbacki have raked and some of the '08 draftees - Decker, Tekotte, Carroll - are off to monster starts. My money is he'll be the #3 guy in the Padres system behind Hunter and Latos.

Does Adrian feel the footsteps? (Of course not, Adrian is a monster.)