Illini Bubble Watch: Day 2

First, a recap of yesterday …

Another up and down day. The big game - ND v. Seton Hall - came out swimmingly, as did G'town knocking out South Florida once and for all. That's two bubble teams who don't get in over the Illini under any circumstances, I think.

Morgan St. also took care of business in the Mid-Eastern Conference, and Marquette ended any chance of a magical run by St. John's. And lest we forget that our boys at Sammy Houston St. stuck it to those yumps at Nicholls St. Nice win, guys.

But that's really where the good news ends. The rest of the day - especially late night - got real dicey.

Cincy coming back and beating Louisville is a bit disturbing. Louisville is apparently now a bubble team, but I think they still get in over the Illini, especially if the Illini can't get it dun against Sconnie. More distressingly, what if Cincy makes a run now and wins the Big East? Unlikely, yes, but still a possibility. I want as few "possibilities" as possible. We'll be rooting heavy against 'Natti this evening.

Montana's upset win over Weber St. is also highly annoying. I don't think Weber St. has enough juice to get an automatic bid, but you never like to see a #1 seed from a non-BCS conference lose if you're a BCS bubble team.

Speaking of non-BCS #1 seeds losing, what happened to my boys at Jackson St. Upset by #8 seed Grambling St.? Oh my. Only one team is coming out of the SWAC - I'm almost certain - but now the committee has a 19-12, 17-1 Jackson St. just hanging out, begging for attention.
And finally, Robert Morris beat Quinnipiac. Probably doesn't matter but Quinnipiac did have 23 wins this season. Some jabrone committee member will probably mention them on Sunday.

On to today's games, where things are starting to get serious ...

The Most Critical
1. Cal over Oregon: HEAVY on the Golden Bears, and here's why: if any team other than Cal wins the Pac 10 tourney, the Illini are effed. Cal is the only Pac 10 team Lunardi has in as a lock. Long story short: Cal is one of our new favorite teams over the next couple of days.

2. Oregon St. over Washington: a big, big game. The Huskies are sitting right on the bubble, waiting to make a name for themselves. I don't trust that Lorenzo Romar. He tends to win some big games. Let's get him and his team o-u-t, out, out, out!

3. Southern Miss over UAB: monster game. UAB is in the same position as the Washingtons, Daytons and URIs of the world - they are currently "out" according to Lunardi but are looming right behind the Illini. They must be terminated with extreme prejudice.

4. Stanford over Arizona St.: ASU is also a bubble team, one of Lunardi's last 4 in. Needless to say we go heavy on the Cardinal.

5. Penn St. over Minnesota: Damn those Golden Gophers. They could be a major wrench in this operation. They are just good enough to be highly annoying, and are sitting right behind the Illini according to Lunardi. Tubby need go home.

6. Houston over Memphis: critical, critical game. Memphis is one of Lunardi's last 4 in. We need them to lose as early as possible in case it comes down to Memphis or Illinois for the last tourney spot.

7. Colorado St. over S.D. St.: this pains me to no end, but we gotta root against the Aztecs. Trust me, it's not easy … my Dad went there for awhile, T. Gwynn coaches their baseball team, I've coached their HD Wooden hoops team for 6 seasons … but all that doesn't overcome our allegiance to the Illini. S.D. St. is currently "in" according to Lunardi, but one of his last 4 in, right with the Illini. It very easily could come down to the Aztecs or the Illini on Sunday afternoon. Let's make the decision a bit easier for the committee and send Stevie Fisher's boys home … stat.

8. Auburn over Florida: Lunardi has Florida in, but I'm not certain. I'd like to see an Auburn win today, followed by an Auburn loss tomorrow.

9. North Carolina over Ga. Tech: we arrive at a tough decision. On the one hand, Ga. Tech is a bubble squad that are competing with the Illini for a final spot in the bracket. On the other hand, UNC is capable of a run and blowing up the whole ACC tournament. For now we have to play the odds and hope UNC isn't going to run the table, and lock in the value of a Ga. Tech loss.

10. West Virginia over Cincinnati: embarrass them, Huggins. Embarrass them.
　
Games to watch with a careful eye
1. Utah St. over Boise St.: I think only one team from the WAC gets in, but I don't want #1 seed Utah St. losing. They have 25 wins and could look tempting to some granola dude on the selection committee.

2. Tulsa over Marshall: I wonder if one of these teams could play themselves in to the tourney with an extended run in the Conference USA tourney. I don't want to find out. Whoever wins this game needs to lose their next game.
　
Secondary Importance
- Kansas over Texas Tech: let's start eliminating any mediocre teams now before they can go on runs

- Texas A&M over Nebraska: get the Cornhuskers out … immediately.

- Villanova over Marquette: apparently Marquette is already solidly in, but we might as well cheer on 'Nova just in case.

- Wake Forest over Miami: Lunardi has Wake in as a lock, so let's get the Hurricanes out early.

- New Mexico over Air Force: another lock over a team that's not getting in unless they win the Big West. No brainer.

- Michigan over Iowa: I think Michigan has a better chance to beat Ohio St. in the second round, setting up a potential easier third round game for the Illini. Dicey to think in those terms, but nonetheless that's the position the Illini have put us in. For the record, I'm not looking past Sconnie. I'm just surmising some stuff.

- Tennessee over LSU: get r dun, fat coach at Tennessee!

- Indiana over Northwestern: The Wildcats have played well in stretches this season and at one point were considered a potential automatic bid team. They reek of Cinderella potential. Crean must rile up the Hoosier mystique and take care o' business, Jimmy Chitwood-style.

- Kansas St. over Oklahoma St.: the Cowbioys look like they're in, but no reason to further pad their resume. We are hanging with Mitch Richmond and rooting for K. St.!

- Kent St. over Ohio: get r dun, higher seed!

- Stephen F. Austin over TAMU Corpus Christi: higher seed, get it dun.

- BYU over TCU: lock over no-chancer … no brainer.

- Clemson over N.C. St: you never like to see the Wolfpack hanging around.

- Sam Houston St. over SE Louisiana: might as well stay on the Sammy Houston Express.

- UTEP over UCF: UTEP is the #1 seed in Conference USA. They need to take care o' their shyte.

- UNLV over Utah: Lunardi has UNLV as a lock and you never want to see Utah hanging around. Lon, do what you do.

Games on.