Illini Bubble Watch: Day 3

First, a recap of yesterday's games ...

A couple huge wins sprinkled with a couple near misses, made yesterday a strong day overall. If Colorado St. had held on against the Aztecs, I wouldn't have much to complain about at all, and if Oregon St. hadn't blown it against the Huskies, darned if it wouldn't have been a perfect day.

Among the big wins yesterday: Houston over Memphis, Akron over E. Michigan, New Mexico over Air Force, Southern Miss over UAB, Tennessee over LSU, Cal over Oregon, K. St. over OK St., WVA over Cincy and, of course, Stanford over ASU. Huge that last one.

Among the bad losses were Ga. Tech over UNC, Minny over Penn St., Washington over Oregon St., the Aztecs over 'Rado St., Florida over Auburn, and N.C. St. over Clemson (double bad because one of the Illini's "marquee" victories this season was at Clemson). A sneaky bad loss was Ohio over Kent St. Kent St. is now sitting there with 23 wins. Dicey. Not real dicey, but dicey.

On to today's tilts ...

Obviously, a lot of this could be moot after the Illini game, though even if the Illini win, a little help by losses by other bubble teams wouldn't hurt. And even if the Illini lose I'm not giving up hope for a sneaky bid until Greg Gumbel reads off the last NCAA Tourney team Sunday afternoon.

Game of Games
- Illini over Wisconsin: uncharacteristically, I don't have a ton of confidence in the Illini today. Wisconsin is playing very well of late, and the Illini are not. Two teams headed in opposite directions. (but get r dun, Illini!)

Critical Games
- UTEP over Tulsa: need the Miners to go ahead and win out in the Connie USA.

- SLU over Rhode Island: one of the most critical games of the day. Rhody is sitting right on the bubble behind the Illini. Their resume must not be padded.

- Tennessee over Ole Miss: Ole Miss is another bubble team, currently listed as "in" by Lunardi. They could be competing with the Illini for a final bid. Send 'em home, fat coach at Tennessee!

- Xavier over Dayton: absurdly important game. The Flyers are right on the bubble and usually play well this time of year. Muy importante that they lose immediatemente.

- Houston over Southern Miss : Southern Miss did us well yesterday but they have 20 wins now, and that's a bit too many for my liking. Let's send them home and then root against the Cougars tomorrow.

- Maryland over Ga. Tech: Ga. Tech's win over UNC was upsetting. Lunardi has them "in" and they are a team the selection committee will likely have in the same bucket as the Illini.

- Florida over Miss. St.: Florida's likely in now so we have to root for them against another bubble team Lunardi currently has as "out." I hope all the Mississippi schools lose today.

- Morgan St. over Hampton: definitely would like to see Morg St. win the Mid-Eastern Tourney.

- Utah St. over La. Tech: as noted yesterday, Utah St. is now sitting at 26 wins. We need them to go ahead and win the WAC tourney.

- Michigan St. over Minnesota: don't like to see Tubby's boys hanging around. Big game.

- New Mexico over S.D. St.: this game is only slightly less critical than yesterday's. Maybe more critical. It's one or the other. Or both.

- Cal over UCLA: Cal must win the Pac 10 tourney!

- Stanford over Washington: need one more win from the Cardinal.

Want To See The Higher Seeds Win
- Temple over St. Bonny's: get r dun, ghost of John Chaney.

- Duke over Virginia : nothing good can come of a Duke upset. Other than laughing at the Duke fans, which, granted, is significant.

- Kentucky over Alabama: John Wall show. I hope.

- Va. Tech over Miami (or not?): tough game here actually. If Miami wins they'll have 20 wins and momentum. Va Tech is likely already in, but Lunardi does have them on the bubble. I think we go Va. Tech but its not entirely clear.

- Purdue over Northwestern: send the nerds home. Stat.

- Akron over W. Michigan: win the Mid-American tourney, Zips.

- G'town over Marquette: both teams are in but no reason for Marquette to continue to pad its resume.

- Richmond over UMass: Spider trap!

- Florida St. over N.C. St.: send the Wolfypack home. Immediately.

- Vandy over Georgia: that Georgia coach, formerly the Nevada coach, scares me. Get him home.

Game Where I Wouldn't Mind If Lower Seed Wins As Long As It's The Last Game They Win
- Michigan over Ohio St.: we can't have Michigan winning the Big Ten Tourney, but they are a better matchup for the Illini in the second round, if the Illini are lucky enough to make it there.

Games on.